| « What A Season! | SURPRISE!!! » |
Now, Our Day Has Come
For over a month, storm after storm has been forced out to sea by a very deep Negative NAO which just means the flow of air was cold and dry from Greenland. Most of the time, a negative NAO is trouble, helping to generate storms along and north of the warm Gulf Stream. But during this whacky year, the cold air was so deep that the mid-Atlantic received the weather which we normally receive.
Well, this time, the storm system is taking a more northerly route, and some rain could fall to our south, not snow. A mix of precip might even fall for awhile along our shore.
In any case, upwards of a foot of snow may fall statewide. A good 12 hour period of heavy snow will fall, and winds could gust over 40 mph. It should begin during the wee hours of Wednesday. It will be a classic moderate to heavy snowstorm.
139 comments
Kind of funny how 'quiet' you get in the Summer, though. Your bias is really showing, Melsy.
GLOOM AND DOOM all the time. Don't forget their are homeless people outside and others that loose power and elderly people that can't shovel snow, etc. Have a heart. Don't make this evil weather a party.
We really can't complain this year. We had only one snow on December 19th. That was it. Even if we get two feet of snow on Wed (not likley)...the angle of the mid February sun will do it's work on any snow cover. Each day, not only are the days longer and the sun stronger...but monthly mean temps are increasing.
In the hype of the snow in the VA/DC area is really unfair. They had just one snowstorm back in late December...then nothing until this past weekend. The news media tries to spin it like they have had such a long snow winter. Yes, they much more snow than normal - but it came on just three events. Sorry to say, but when you cut through all hype out there...the East Coast just has mild winters with a snow at the beginning and end of winter normally. Sustined cold and snow just can never hang on south of Boston.
Connecticut and the East Coast just don't have the elevation and latitude to have alot of snow. So lets all enjoy the snow tomorrow...because snow is fleeting on the lowlands of the East Coast.
Keep up the good work Dr Mel, go get some sleep and let the youngsters stay up all night for this one.
Anyhow, I LOVE Dr. Mel and he's from East Haven. Can't say I'm always crazy about his forecasts, but that's life in New England.
Looks like I should have stayed on vacation for a couple more days! LOL!!!! Judging from the posts on previous blogs, I did not miss much. I was supposed to go back to work today, but they're closed. I had not planned on going in, but now I don't have to use another vacation day.
Let's hope this is our last 'big one' of the year. Time to start thinking Spring.
Chat soon.
Just wait until the end of March into the first part of April when we starting hitting the upper 40s & 50s. Maybe even 60s. They'll try telling us how cold it is outside that that it does not feel like Spring to try to keep the spin going.
morons.
Glad to see your back. How were things in the southland. My trip down I-95 will be next week. By mid week I'll be near Melbourne, FL. Highs are supposed to be over 70 F. Then I dash back up I-95 by the last week of the month or so.
We should be in good shape after the snow passes...the pattern looks to be quite, with no big storms for much of the last two weeks of February. I know you are not a snow lover…but enjoy the snow, because this may be the last big snow in the Tri-State area until next December. Today’s snow is the only snowstorm we have had since December 19th. I think most of the state will see 8 to 12 inches in today’s storm…though some rain will mix in on the coast/I-95 corridor and keep accumulations in check. By Thursday, the sun will be back out blazing, and the quick melting will begin.
Keep in mind the solar angle is increasing every day – fast. The sun’s energy is now driving up surface temperatures everywhere. So the snow cover will have to fight hard to survive much south of 42 latitude. Also, in the coming weeks the subtropical south Atlantic states/Gulf States will warm quickly. Charleston, SC for example has January mean high temp of 58 F…while the first weeks of March have a mean high temp of almost 70 F. Any advections of southern air much after mid Feb – will almost certainly bring in warm air.
This winter was a good balance for snow fans and non-snow fans I think. One big snow early in winter (on December 19th)…then mostly sunny and dry for the bulk of winter…then one big snowstorm near the end of winter (today).
So relax my warm weather friend…from here on in…the sun becomes more and more in control of things. The forces of the subtropical south are march toward now…
My vacation was relaxing. Not happy to be back with this, but like you said, we really can't complain. I could have to deal with winters like they get in Minnesnowta.
I hope you're right in saying this is our last big one until next December. It's time to start thinking Spring. :)
Well, enjoy your trip. Chat soon.
Oh man are you RIGHT!
It would serves the lazy SOBs right ...In this ecomomy why would you provide your employer with evidence that they can do just fine WITHOUT you!
There was NO REASON to close ANYTHING today or to stay home from work. This is why this country is LAST in EVERY THING. Nobody knows the value of an honest days work anymore.
BTW: the sun is now out in Waterbury. Thanks Dr Moron.
it must be about time to start downplaying the storm.
BTW, Robert Lewis & Hysterical Nonsense, guess what, my company closed for the day & I DID NOT HAVE TO WORK!!!!!!! Ha ha ha ha ha! Nyah nyah nyah!!!!
I personally would rather see the schools closed for a full day than being in session for only a half day. In my town, 2/3 of my healthy dose of tax dollars feeds the bloated educational budget. I want every dollar of my contribution to be stretched as far as it possible with no shortcuts. And we do not have, nor do we plan on having children...
Of course, there will be no admission of the fiasco by the on-air staff.
And we will continue to see the self-aggrandizing promos about how Ch 8 (and 3 and 30) kept us UPDATED AND WARNED ABOUT THE WINTER STORM.
You TV folks need a little less shill and a lot more humility. I'm not holding my breath.
Of course, there will be no admission of the fiasco by the on-air staff.
And we will continue to see the self-aggrandizing promos about how Ch 8 (and 3 and 30) kept us UPDATED AND WARNED ABOUT THE WINTER STORM.
You TV folks need a little less shill and a lot more humility. I'm not holding my breath.[/amquote]
This is the last time I listen to the HUGE BLIZZARD coming and close my business
This "snowstorm has truely been a great disappointment. "Wimpy snow" at best. Very little here in North Haven at 2:05pm; 2 inches at the most. My mother, Dorothy Barth, said the only blizzards around here are at Dairy Queen! Well put!
Betty1949
Like the old N.O. Saints fans use to do)
Maybe they need to trash the Doppler radar, and just put their finger in the air to forecast the weather.
1. The global warming excuse is not funny or accurate. Global warming does not mean winter does not exist so give it a break.
2. Weathermen have hyped snowstorms for as long as I can remember. If you live here you should have learned to downplay what they say. If they say it's going to start at 6AM, remember the whole state is not on the shoreline.
Also, this specifically has annoyed me while reading through the comments.
If school's cancel and you think they could have had a half day, you should get a better hobby. Remember when you were a kid. Put yourself in a new set of shoes and picture how hard a bus driver would have to work if it started snowing before kids got out.
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=19668940001&title=Blizzard Just Keeps Coming..The Latest on the Storm
Business had been a little slow, but thanks to you sales have skyrocketed!
Stop by for your bonuses!
Bob Sweet
Bob's Snow Shovel, Ice Melt & Grocery Store Inc.
Have you noticed even channel 8 has decreased the amount of snow we are to get! By half!
If you think Dr Mel is doing a great job, how bad does someone have to do something to be doing a horrible job?
Another inaccurate forecast - scaring viewers and drumming up ratings.
I agree with you, this was such a terrible thing to scare the entire state
of connecticut by telling people to stay off the roads, stay home, close schools, etc. with all ther"Great" doppler " nonsense they should be able to be right on and be exact as to where the snow is. They are not any better today that they were 50 years ago. It must be nice to get paid a great salary and you can still be wrong. unfortuntialy most of us in our jobs dont have the luxury to be wrong. but this time is truly shameful for all the chaios that this totally incorrect forcast has costed people. I hope you
where the egg on your face well. I will never never listen to what any of you so call weather forcasts have to say because you are always WRONG!!!!!!
The Indian Chiefs used to be able to stand on the mountain and predict the weather better than you weather forcaster do.
How much are you weather forecasters paid? 2010 with the technology that is avaliable today and you still cant get IT RIGHT......PATHETIC. We got about 2 inches in The Valley, @ 7:30 this morning it was going to be up to what a foot, We got a foot alright but it certianly isnt on my lawn. Again, PATHETIC prediction
I'm no weatherman..but gosh..even as you were "still" forecasting heavy snow amounts, I was watching your radar and was saying....no way is this going to be a big storm.
C-mon....you gotta have some "gut feeling" somewhere in your forecasts????
I'm waiting for THREE for THREE!
Very Bad Performance.
Did you mean .....12-15 "FLAKES" ...casue i certainly don't see 12-15 inches!!!
I closed my store for a DUSTING.....you have to do a better job.....I'd be fired if I made so many miscalculated errors!!
Maybe it's time you folks find another job like reading a crystal ball at a carnival. I do have to admit one thing. You guys are correct when you tell us what HAS happened. But here again no need to tune in for that!!
My sister-in-law with the bad knees is more accurate than you. Great job guys.
Too bad stations like channel 8 can't devote more resources to genuine old fashioned reporting, instead of ridiculous storm coverage.
These forecasters cost us big time today. Too bad.
Just listen to the comments above...but of course you guys won't. You try to hype winter/snow...in a lowland,humid coastal state. You guys make a fool of only yourself.
Did you ever wonder why there is no ski resorts in the Atlantic States? Perhaps there "is" something to long term climate data after all.
March 10- 14th is normally the last average date for snowfall across Connecticut. So it's a good bet that the season will end with less snow than normal once again.
Snow fans like Gil and Mel should move to the high country of California where they have had 245 -inches so far (lol)
Now that the final week of Meteorological Winter is upon us, it's a pretty safe bet that the winter fans will start getting very testy on here, saying things like 'we can still get one!' & 'we've gotten them at late as April!', etc. Like you said before, it's possible but not likely.
You have to admit, it is pretty amusing the way they get when the curtin is falling on winter. It's almost as funny as the Connecticut Weather Show. :)
Fear not my warm weather friend…I think the door is slowing shutting on another winter in the Atlantic lowlands (lol).
There is a utter lack of true arctic air across North America now…combined with the fact that mean daily normal temps are rising fast…and the solar angle is increasing…I really think there is little winter left. Over the past week or two, we've seen a cold pattern become much less so. Yesterday temps shot into the 40’s across much of the Tri-State and near 50 F in the Middle Atlantic States. The latest reports that the snow in the Middle Atlantic is melting so fast that flooding is a growing concern. Latitude and solar angle are showing their might.
There has been a growing northward shift in the models for the semi-storm that was expected to be in the eastern USA by Mon/Tue. So whatever passes by us will be rain or a mixed wet and light event. The pattern just has too much warm advection now…the subtropics are warming quickly. I would think most of the snow cover across the whole East Coast south of Boston will be mostly gone by Tue or so. We may even have a little rain/fog to help along that process. Your grass will be showing by Tuesday.
After that, the bigger storm that “might” be near the eastern USA by late next week looks more and more like it will cut toward the Lakes trying to follow the retreating cold. It could be the last chance for a signifcant snow. After that (next weekend)… another modest shot of cooler air, but not really all that cold. Then there are signs that early March will see a more northern pattern (more normal) so with the solar angle increasing…mean temps rising…and the length of daylight increasing…snow will have a hard time surviving. Add in a little southerly advection on the east side of storms heading toward the Great Lakes now and then…and we could see our first 50 to 60 F days the week after next.
The two minute warning for winter is upon us…
Here we go-now they are going to uncut the highs.
Always happy to see winter on the way OUT! Like I've said before, I will never understand all these people who like it. It does nothing but cause problems.
Matt, if you think that's bad, just wait until we start having 70 degree days, and Mel & Gil try telling it's a little cool outside & we might want to take along a light jacket when we go out. :)
I can't honestly say I'm a big fan of having to mow the lawn when it's hot out, but given the choice between that & dealing with winter, I'll take mowing the lawn anytime!
Damn Canadian, Vermont, & Maine weather should stay up there where it belongs!
Well, we've made it! The final week of Meteorological Winter! That, coupled with the rain that's coming this week will surely get the dander up on the winter fans. Before long, they'll be on here saying 'It's not over yet! We can still get one!' But, even if we do, it does not last. The increasing angle of the sun would surely see to that!
Yep, the curtain is falling on yet another Tri-State Winter, and I am very happy to see it go away! Good riddance, Winter!
Also, the last storm alot of people blamed Geoff Fox, well I watch all of the news times, and in my opinion, everybody, Gil and Geoff, both messed up. They should have done what Scott Haney did... broke an egg over their heads. I also never heard Gil apologize, just Geoff. I don't get that at all.
You should have no problem...most of the week in CT will feature on/off rain showers and some mix...but it will amount to very little. Temps will be mostly near 40 F. You'll be fine. You missed a nice weekend...temps hit near 50 F under blazing sunshine.
It’s snowing up here in New England (Vermont)! We are expecting 8 inches today…then maybe a foot or two this weekend. I see by the weather map it’s raining in the Tri-State area (lol). The storm this weekend will also be rain down in the Tri-State. Give it up, move here to the northland and enjoy a real winter! I tried down in CT, but the winters are just too wimpy!
It’s just too warm down there…come up north... into the winter wonder land!
A crisp 22 F here right now. What is it in New Haven 40 F? lol.
I'll take wet over white anytime!
What’s so funny is you can see how hard Gil/Mel are rooting for snow…and the pure anger on their face that 80% of Connecticut saw just rain. Notice how they try to send people way the heck to near the Mass line to get the fleeting snow pics (woo, 3.7 inches – look out Green Bay-lol). It’s beyond funny. They try to tell us how awful it is outside – it raining, that happens in humid lowland climates, that what will turn everything green in a few weeks (lol).
The funniest time of year is the early part of March…when you see they “wishcasting”. When they start ignoring the weather in 75% of Connecticut to show us the weather up along the Mass line…I know that winter is over below Boston.
Now it’s the comic relief that begins.
Just wait until we start hitting the upper 50s & lower 60s. They'll try saying that it does not feel like spring. Then of course when the 70s hit, they'll try telling us that it's a little cool outside & we might want to take along a light jacket!
You're also right about things greening up in a few more weeks. I'm sure the green will have them seeing red! LOL!!!!!! I remember last year, our lawn actually started greening up the beginning of March.
Also, I've noticed that our other 'friends' have been awful quiet lately. Haven't seen their names on here for some time. I'm sure they're both seeing red over this being a week of mostly rain & not the other! :)
We were dying of laughter here this morning!
It’s raining in 100% of Connecticut…the grass is showing in 95% of the state…but they keep trying to tell us ”well there is snow on the ground in the NW Hills” (yea, we know mountains locations get snow – even in Hawaii). You could see the pure pain on Gil’s face that the map is all green. It steams his some bad.
Then he shows the snow map. Talk about wishcasting…2 -5 inches of snow with 35-mph south winds off the 60 F Gulf Stream (lol). Only in his world. Then at the end he tries to pitch 6 to 10 inches in the verrrrrrry tip of SW CT (Greenwich). We just died here of laughter. They just have to get it in (lol).
The “show” is in high gear! Quick, get out the storm truck and drive around on wet roads with 40 F temps and tell us the conditions are “just so treacherous” . It’s beyond lame.
Yea, our friends have been really silent. Hmmm. Makes you wonder who they really were?
Wait...wet roads in Connecticut, call out the National Guard! (lol).
Think what wimps people in the snowbelts of the Great Lakes think we are on the East Coast. I heard them say "verrrrry cold today" - it's 30 F!
What would the Dakota farmer who braves windchills of 60 F below zero say?
It's beyond lame.
Did you happen to catch Mel's noon update? I was wondering what his demeanor was like today. I'm sure seeing all that heavy crap just out to our west has got to sting for him! Even if he's grinning on TV, you know that inside, he has got to be pretty p*ssed off about that! Same with Gil.
I just got through shoveling the remaining slop off of my porch. Wanted to do it before it melted. :)
Give up the fight, winter! You're not going to win, you never do. Just die, and stay dead! Don't ever come back.
Well you made it…meteorological winter 2009/2010 is officially history!
In the end, despite some wild weather around the USA…most of Connecticut enjoyed an average winter with temperatures ABOVE NORMAL with snowfall BELOW NORMAL except for a narrow strip along the coast. As you remember this was my hunch back in late October; we would experience a warmer than normal winter with less than normal snowfall.
While the bulk of CT was a good bit warmer than normal this winter ( by 2 to 3 F)…the coastal areas where fairly close to normal (+/- 1 to 1.5 F). Still, even at the coast, NWS Bridgeport, had just one winter month than had a mean temperature below freezing! The warmth of the Atlantic helped keep real winter away once again this winter. The rain/snow line saved CT several times (lol). Here is a quick rundown of monthly mean temperatures (high/low) for the two NWS Connecticut stations:
NWS BRADLEY = 3.5 F above normal.
December… 30.3 F ( -0.5 F)
January… 27.5 F (+1.8 F)
February…31 F (+2.2 F)
NWS BRIDGEPORT = -1.4 F below normal.
December… 33.3 F ( -1.8 F)
January… 29.7 F (- 0.2 F)
February…32.5 F (+0.6 F)
In terms of snowfall…most of Connecticut had it easy for the most part. The entire state of Connecticut for the most part had only 30 to 40 inches in the three months of meteorological winter. In fact, NWS Bradley, even in extreme northern Connecticut…could only muster 30.6 inches of snow all winter…while NWS Bridgeport had 38.0 (however about a quarter of this occurred in just 1 snowfall on Dec 19th/20th). There were really only a handful of even modest snowfalls this past meterogical winter. In fact, NWS Bradley had just 5 modest snow (greater than 2 inches) and NWS Bridgeport had just 6 modest snows since November 30th, 2009. Both CT NWS stations could only muster a single 6 inch or greater snowfall all winter.
NWS Bradley …snowfall of greater than 2.0 inches;.
Dec, 9th…Dec,20th…Jan 28th, Feb 16th… and Feb 24th. (only 1 snowfall of 6.0 inches or greater).
NWS Bridgeport…snowfall of greater than 2.0 inches;
Dec 19/20th…Jan 2/3rd…Jan 28th…Feb 10th…Feb 16th…and Feb 26th.
So all in all…we made out nicely in Connecticut during winter 2009/2010.
As far as what lies ahead?
Th sun is getting stronger every day…the days are getting longer…and the cold season continues to weaken. While it’s possible for a cold blast or modest snow to happen…the long term numbers are mounting quickly against it. El Nino is slowly weakening, so the pattern will see much less storminess in the coming weeks…as mean temperatures surge upward while the solar angle continues to mount higher and higher. This week will have more of a spring feel in Connecticut, wet and cool, but not at all cold. A mix of light showers and some wet snow mixed in…trending toward mostly rain showers. By this coming weekend, the should be a decent warm push from the subtropical south…so much of the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic could see temperatures next Sun/Mon/Tue in the 55 to 60 F range. Of course, the wartmth and rainfall tell us the green wave is building (lol).
For the winter fan…once again winter’s lease was all too short.
Yep, another Meteorological Winter comes to a close. I know we can still get one, but like you said, it would not last. The increasing angle of the sun & warmth would surely see to that!
Saying goodbye to winter would not be complete without this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsaTElBljOE
Looks like we're dodging a bullet big time tomorrow! That, combined with the forecasted temps in the 50s (yeah!) will surely get the dander up on the winter fans. I'm sure you've noticed how quiet they've gotten all of the sudden! LOL!!!!!
Good riddance, winter! If I never see you again, it'll be too soon.
Just wait until next Monday when we hit 50. I'm sure he'll REALLY be seeing red, then.
March is truly the fun time at “Channel 8 weather show”! I call it the season of denial (lol).
This morning I watched Gil…he was barely able to hide his anger that the ground was too warm for today’s snow to have much of an effect. Then (and this is truly a display of how bitter winter fans are)…someone remarked about how this weekend should see high temps near 50 F …so he says “yes, folks, it may get to 50 F , but it will be cloudy”. We just died laughing!! You can see he is so bitter that another wimpy Connecticut winter is coming to an end. It steams him so bad that it is getting warmer each day. He tries to hid so bad that winter is quickly slipping away. March 12th…is the mean date of the last 1-inch snowfall (100% prob) at NWS Bridgeport (9 days away!).
Just keep watching the fun my friend…as the solar angle increases and the daily means swiftly rise…the comic relief gets better. Enjoy this weekend…sunshine and temps 45 to 50 F Sat/Sun. I see a lot of winter fans seeing red this weekend and beyond (lol).
They should rename March “When the winter fan turns bitter”.
Yep, the blogs will probably get very quiet now, as they do at the end of every winter. We probably won't hear from Mel again until next Fall, when he has his 'guess the first snow' forecast.