I saw all the hype about the wet snow and saw this on City Data.com and thought it was so perfect (lol)


The absurdity of winter weather hype along the
Metropolitan East Coast of the United States


Winter in the Western, Midwestern, and northern New England regions of the United States needs no headline to announce its arrival. Folks who live in these regions know how to prepare for the long and severe winters that come with living in a northerly or high altitude location. Each winter they meet the cold season with little fanfare or hype. If you live in the Midwest in a place like Williston, North Dakota or Green Bay, Wisconsin…you don’t need the TV weatherman to tell you a cold front is coming when your walking down the street and the wind chill is - 55 F below zero. Folks living in the Intermountain West, Great Lakes, or New England … don’t need to be told what to do when it snows, you learn quick in places like Duluth, Minnesota or Bangor, ME where 90 –inches of the white stuff piles up in most winters.

The meaning and reality of the word “winter”, is far different along the metropolitan East Coast of the United States. We shout from the rooftops when it’s 30 F in Central Park or two whole inches of snow falls in DC. From the Tri-State area (NYC/NJ/CT) southward….the Eastern Seaboard does not have a winter in the Midwestern or northern sense of the word - only a season of cool weather with sporadic snow that lasts a few months on average. Although there is the occasional respectable snowstorm and bouts of subfreezing weather…winters along the East Coast are short and mild compared from the Tri-State area south. Of course, once you get as far south as North Carolina on the East Coast…real winter generally just fades away amid the greening plams.

However, each fall, around late October… the comical pump-up to winter begins in the I-95 states. Time and time again, East Coast weathercasters warn, “snow is not far off“ (really? it’s 60 F outside now) …or “snow has now been reported at Mount Washington, NH” (yea, that tends to happen at 7000 feet). By December the machine is in full swing - each broadcast the viewer is bombarded with “its sunny, but boy is it cold” (44 F cold? they would laugh at that in Duluth)…or the evening weathercaster announces “there is the threat of snow in the 8-day forecast” (as if we need to plan stock-up with supplies for a few inches of snow that will melt in two days),….or an oldie but a goodie is that file video of a snowstorm we had 7 years ago (or 17 years ago).

By December, the terse, non-stop rhetoric, reaches an almost comical pitch: If there is no threat of snow in the big cities along the East Coast (which happens most often)….we are then even warned about the cold - as if that the next cold front coming down from Canada into the upper Midwest will end all life as we know it on the East Coast. Somehow though, … that 20 below zero temperature they show us up in Minnesota … becomes 15 F in Indiana….25 F in Ohio,… and finally 35 F in Maryland or Connecticut. All we really needed was an extra scarf or a heavier coat. In a few days, it’s 45 F again.

Predictably, by mid winter, most folks in the I-95 states from Virginia to Connecticut …have long since stopped paying any attention to the evening weathercast beyond 48 hours. As each hyped bout of pathetic wintry weather comes and disappointingly departs…even the folks who love an occasional good snowstorm have lost interest. It can be a bit embarrassing when your local TV station in Baltimore or Long Island tells you in a frantic voice to get prepared for 2-inches of snow …when you see folks in Denver or Cleveland digging out from 2-feet of snow. The final chapter of this absurd East Coast tale comes to an end in mid March: local weathercasters (especially the ones who live for the 90-days of winter on the East Coast) grumble with comments like “we got off easy this year, wait till next year”. Year in, year out, it’s the same story.

For the millions who live in the Atlantic States… the TV weatherman has been reduced to a silly personality with a warped sense of climatological averages. Winter weather is a point of comical conversation for East Coast residents - a joke, a myth, something playful in a serious world. Sure, there is the occasional valid warning that it may snow once in a while…but winter is fleeting along the Atlantic Coast of the United States south of Boston.

It takes awhile for a relocated Midwesterner to understand that winter along the East Coast is really a state of mind…not a real season. A true winter landscape… with huge snow drifts…ice hanging from the eaves…bitter cold, and people bundled up in parkas and mittens, is really what we romance winter to be. In the end, despite the best attempts by the gods of media, marketing, and meteorology…. residents along the East Coast never really pay much attention to winter…only images of winter. The hype of winter on the East Coast is really about marketing and media.

But oh… how they love to hype that fleeting winter from DC to the Connecticut suburbs of NYC….


Writer Tim Hines grew up in Milwaukee, WI and relocated to New Haven, CT.

Your right the hype here is terrible WFSB has even started to name minor snowstorms it's a joke...........

dr. mel... what is the weather like in the leewards??? martinique' esp???

Denver does not get 2 ft of snow on a regular basis. The Rocky Mountains protect that area for the most part and thats where the snow is. And if they do get "2ft" it is usually gone within a day or so because the temps stay on an average of 50-60 daytime. I have friends in Denver and they dont even own a winter coat, snowblower or salt.

KC....

don't know where you get your info from, but I lived in denver, they get 38-inches of snow a year, and you would die without a winter coat!

winter in New Haven is far easier to take.

So true, Jan. It's better than Fox TV! LOL!!!!!!

To: Mark Visitor

KC is somewhat correct about Denver winters.They are fairly mild and dry.If you look at the average high temp in Jan in Denver it is about 45 vs CT's 35.Most of the snow falls in Mar and Apr.They get a lot of snow but it melts in a few days.

The battle rages on between winter enthusiasts and winter haters. I do notice most of the people saying how mild CT winters are live along the coast. And no matter how many times you tell them that there is a significant difference between inland shoreline winter conditions they just don't seem to get it. The also are comparing CT winters to Places that are much farther north (near the Canadian border) or in the lake effect snowbelt) Of course those places are colder and snowier at times, But it's not like that all year round, They have mild spells along the way to. Denver is a Great example. It occasionally gets into the 70's there during the winter. Accu weather meterologist Joe Bastardi is predicting a cold and snowy winter for the southern New England the Mid atlantic. This current set up of much colder than normal with wet snow close by may be a sign of the upcoming winter pattern. I'm sure well have our few warm days during the winter but I think frequent bouts of cold and snow are likely to

To : Brian Visitor

Hi Brian, I am very happy and excited to reconnect with you concerning the upcoming winter.It looks very promising that we will get as much snow as last year . Henry Marquisity came out with his winter forecast. He is a meteorologist with Accuweather. He and Joe Bastardi seem to feel that we will have a colder and snowier than normal winter. Henry estimates that 38 inches will fall for the entire winter season right on the coast in Bridgeport. Windsor Locks in Northern Ct should receive 71 inches.Joe Bastardi seems to feel that most of the snow will occur in a few large storms with the southern jet more active with the fading weak el nino. I am amazed at the winter climatology ignorence on this post. I want to say that i feel that you , Brian Visitor are one of the more knowledgeable posters.I just finished Dr Mel Goldsteins Connecticut climate book and for the record he stated that Average Annual snowfall in Connecticut varies from 20 inches a year right on the coast within site of the water up to 120 inches a year on the highest peaks in the northwest hills of Litchfield County Connecticut.He even noted in his book that even in the city of New Haven Connecticut a city right on the coast in southern ct , that snowfall varies from 20 inches within site of the coast in the lighthouse point park in the southeast part of the city of New Haven on the Peninsula surrounded by the water to closer to 40 inches in the westville section of New Haven in the Northwest part of the city just off the wilbur cross parkway.I always new this but i am happy that Dr Mel brought this to our attention. Dr Mel Goldstein has a Doctorate in Meteorology, he has been following the unique southern new england climate since the 1950's . I agree with you, if you are at least 10 miles inland in Ct and are at an elevation of at least 400 feet , i feel your average winter climatology is not mild and snowless. This is 90 percent of the state of Connecticut. It just seems that so many posters are right on the shore ,because the population centers are in that area.They are misinformed .I average 36 inches of snow a year. This is the same as Chicago Il a city as far north as Windsor Locks Ct, near the Mass line.Denver Colorado is fairly mild in the winter and they are at an elevation of 5280 ft. Mile high city. If you were at over 5000 feet in Ct you would be in a treeless arctic Tundra not much different that Mt Washington New Hampshire.What makes our winters great is the frequent coastal noreasters and abundant precipitation. They talk about the large snowfalls in the rockies, this is not where people live. This is at 8000-10000 foot elevations.They talk about lake effect snow in the areas east of the great lakes. If you are not in the snowbelt your snowfall is surprisingly low. I think this facts demonstrate that inland ct does get an exciting real winter.

Please let me know what you think Brian

Mj VIsitor

Here we go again…the winter weather hypers and spinners, lead by the ultimate Connecticut winter spin man Dr. Mel… are twisting the facts/hyping winter, and it’s still two whole months away. We had a dusting of snow at the high elevations in the nw part of the state…and suddenly we’re Cleveland or Duluth (lol). The hype of winter is such a joke in the Tri-Sate area.

Consider that the mean date of the first “real” snow in southern Connecticut is December 18th according to the NWS office in NYC. Last year was the same pre hyped deal…then we got a snowstorm on December 18th…then it was 60 F four days later and EVERY SINGLE trace of snow was gone in southern Connecticut. It just steams the winter crowd in Ct so bad, that we get so little snow compared to places that have “real winter” like the upper Midwest, Great lakes, Intermountain West, and Northern New England. The great news is that NOAA is predicting the even weak El Nino… will give the Tri-State a mild winter (meaning even more wimpy than normal). Combined with 60 F Atlantic Ocean temps as we head toward November…and southern Connecticut/long Island/NYC might not see a significant snow until the New Year (maybe not even then considering the El Nino.

As far as Dr. mels book… from the perspective of a weather fan…it was just another long winded winter spin of Connecticut’s weather. I thumped through it, and 60% was about snow storms going back 400 years. The most significant weather event in the 350 year history of Connecticut (and the most lethal)…1938 Hurricane was give only a cursory mention. Most people in southern Connecticut could care less about historic snowstorms; they don’t kill people and knock down buildings. Sorry, but I found the book just another unfair attempt by the master of winter spin in Connecticut to write something about winter and Connecticut. The book was devoted to a season that last 90 days or less…what about the other 9 months of weather?
So to Shoreline and others who obviously noticing how the “hype machine” is gearing up, fear not…as is normal, the prevailing climate of the East Coast and the Tri-State area will trump the hype of the winter spinners as is always the case. We’ll get a few inches of snow…a few times …in the 90 days of winter in the Tri-State area. Nothing more. If we are lucky, we’ll get even less then that.

But it’s going to be fun to watch the “show”(lol).

PS they above comment about inland Connecticut snow shows the lack of true climate facts. But the hype rages on (lol)

To : Brian Visitor

Here we go again. The shoreliners , heat mizers are at it again. I thought Dr Mels book was a fair balanced approach to Ct's climate. It was not all about snowstorms. There are many valuable tables on CT's climate. He even presented the global warming issue with both sides of the argument.I think the Connecticut climate Data for coastal ct taken at Sikorsky Memorial Airport has a warm bias because it is on a peninsula jutting into long island sound.The last freeze on Average is Nov4.This is considerably later than most coastal residents experience.The reason for this is the open windy exposure with the wind coming over the water in most every direction on the compass.The water temperature is currently 62 degrees and Sikorskys climate is being Moderated by this microclimate.I dont know where Matt is coming from. Last winter was very interesting with the heavy snowfalls in late December , The Frigid Mid Jan outbreak with the temperature dropping to ten Below zero in North Haven Ct , less than 10 miles from the shore.The March 2 snowstorm set a record for the date with about 9.6 inches.Seasonal snowfall was well above average with about 42 inches in Bridgeport.I don't understand why Matt comparing our Winters with the upper midwest , areas much further north. I know at the same latitude outside of snowbelt areas, New England gets more snow.For Example, over the Long Term, the last 60 years, Windsor Locks Ct , Bradlee International Airport, a low elevation site in northern ct averaged nearly the same as Minneapolis, a city nearly as far north as Montreal . This is excluding the Litchfield Hills Ct true snowbelt.

MJ Visitor

MJ Vistor...

We all know who you "really are"...so why not give it a rest. It's Connecticut, not Wisconsin! Live with it or move!

JC, do yourself a favor & just ignore MJ's & Brian's posts. That's what I do. I don't even read them, haven't for some time now. They'll go back & forth with you until the end of time, and it's really not worth it to get into it with them.

Looks like I'm not alone with hoping for a mild winter. 53% of people who voted want one, too.

What Mel & Gil fail to realize is that a lot of people who live here DON'T like snow. The fact that only 29% of people who voted say they want a lot of it pretty much says it all. A lot of people who live here probably moved down from Maine, Vermont, or the upper midwest to get away from it for the most part. Our weather can go either way. Sure, there was some (not in my area, thank god!) the other night and it's chilly this weekend, but guess what? Next weeks going to be back up in the 60s!

Where's Si when you need him? He usually sets the records staight. Si, where are you?????

As a current meteorology student let me just chime in on this…I love weather

Keep in mind the forecasts by AcuuWeather and NOAA is just that…a forecast. Who really knows for sure what winter will bring. The two seasonal snow forecasts for NWS Bridgeport (38 –in) and Hartford (71-in) created by AccuWeather (notorious winter fans)are predictions as well. If they are to be believed, both stations would have to get about 60% MORE snow in an El Nino winter…not impossible…but not very likely in even a weak El Nino year. NOAA is actually forecasting the El Nino to become stronger in the coming weeks which would generally mean a milder early winter to the central and eastern USA.

Next… claming that seasonal snow in Connecticut can be interpreted with any level of 100% accuracy beyond the 24.5 inches a year averaged at NWS Bridgeport and the 44.5 inches a year measured at Windsor Locks is fool hardy. I have not read Mel’s new winter book…however ANY data beyond official NWS data is truly suspect. NOAA sees to it the rigorous collection methods are in place to keep the numbers accurate. Also claming that seasonal snow is 20 inches “only within sight of the Long Island Sound is untrue. Many, many areas that are inland in eastern Connecticut receive around 20-inches of snow each winter. The real snow region in Connecticut, if it can be called that, is confined to the areas north of I-84, which is a rather small region of Connecticut.

I do see a rather bezzier attempt by some to take the Tri-State region/East Coat south of Massachusetts…located in a climate some even consider “Humid Subtropical” (Cf) and compare it to real winter regions or “Cold Continental (Df)”. Here is a quick climate map …

http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/75/7575-004-27272BBA.gif

It clearly shows that the East Coast from Connecticut/NYC south… is in a totally different climate zone then the Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England. Snowfall and sub freezing temperatures are fleeting in Cf climates world wide. Granted, Connecticut/NYC/New Jersey are are at the extreme far north end of this zone…but the cold and snow of the states to the north make them much worse. There is no comparsion to winters in CT/NYC to winters up in the snowbelts or Canada. It’s just a fact.

Lets set a few things straight here. This will be an El Nino winter here,However if you winter haters decided to read all of what Noaa said you would have read the part that El Nino has the least affect on the Northeast. Factors such as NAO and PDO have more of an effect than El Nino does and those can be forecasted generally within a couple of weeks of occuring. Also If U read the maps Midwest and West coast is forecasted to be above normal with a less harsh winter. While the Southeast and Mid Atlantic and southern New England will be below normal in temp. Now of course this is all relative but the consensus is for a colder and snowier winter than normal. Another point. OMG we are going to be back up into the low 60;s for a couple days next week. Yeah true,but that is the typical high temp for Mid to late Oct. After being 10-20 degrees below normal for the past week with a couple hard frost and freezes it will feel kind a nice lol. Matt must either have amnesia or live in his own tropical paradise because he seems to think the DEC 18th snow storm was the only one we had. After that brief 2 day warm up around Christmas time we had frequent snow events and Didn't see bare ground all of January and most of February. The only comparison I see is a few negative winter people stating that a small section of coastal CT is representative of the rest of CT winter. Also Water temps are generally running 55-60 RIGHT NOW. But we can all look forward to being surrounded by by those steamy tropical 35-45 degree water temps come December and January.

Highlights of the U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) include:

High Resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across much of the western and central U.S., especially in the north-central states from Montana to Wisconsin. Though temperatures may average warmer than usual, periodic outbreaks of cold air are still possible.
Below-average temperatures are expected across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic from southern and eastern Texas to southern Pennsylvania and south through Florida.
Above-average precipitation is expected in the southern border states, especially Texas and Florida. Recent rainfall and the prospects of more should improve current drought conditions in central and southern Texas. However, tornado records suggest that there will also be an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter.
Drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
Northeast: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather in this region is often driven not by El Niño but by weather patterns over the northern Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. These patterns are often more short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance.
California: A slight tilt in the odds toward wetter-than-average conditions over the entire state.
Alaska: Milder-than-average temperatures except along the western coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-median precipitation for most areas except above median for the northwest.
Hawaii: Below-average temperatures and precipitation are favored for the entire state..

It's snowing right now (10/18/09 at 6:00 pm)in Oakdale, CT 06370.

yep , gay hill rd here , its a mix of snow and rain.

I live on the coast and are a boater...and Long Island Sound only gets below 40 F for a few short weeks. In fact, even in December I have seen 55 F + water temps. Heck the 0 F Gulf Stream is only about 250-NM southeast of eastern Long Island. The warm Atlantic is the reason the Eastern Seaboard never gets any snow from ct south.

I live on the coast and are a boater...and Long Island Sound only gets below 40 F for a few short weeks. In fact, even in December I have seen 55 F + water temps. Heck the 80 F Gulf Stream is only about 250-NM southeast of eastern Long Island. The warm Atlantic is the reason the Eastern Seaboard never gets any snow from ct south.

Snow equals ratings,that's why it's hyped so bad.
The Worst Weather Personality
1.Scot Haney { I want to puke}
2.Gil Simmons {Stop flirting with Desiree}
3 Brad Fields {Doomsday forecaster}
4.Dr. Mel {Phony}
5.Gil Simmons{Yes feces does stink}

I agree, Laurie! That's why I always rely on weather.com & noaa.gov if I need to know what to expect. They tell it like it is without the hype.

I can't comment on Brad Fields, but I do agree with you on the rest of that list. They all drive me nuts!

To Laurie Japina

I do not agree with you concerning Connecticut Weather Personalities. I think they are all Consumate Proffesionals. We are very fortunate to have long term meteorologists with experience forecasting connecticuts weather. I think the 2 best meteorologists are Dr Mel and Brad Field.I know what i am talking about since i am a weather enthusiest and have followed them for Years.

To Brian Visitor,

I can not believe some of the posters on this site.I can understand that some of the them do not like snow , but criticizing out Tv weather personalities just shows how mean they are.I am a student of climatology and i also have purchased NOAA's Climate Atlas.I feel this is more in line with real world climatology. For example the have color coded average annual snowfall totals for all the counties in the united states.I am sick and tired of them saying that inland connecticut and your area of Rhode Island does not get a real winter.I will give you an example. The national weather service ofice in Binghampton NY is at link field at an elevation of 1600 ft.They average about 80 inches a year.The downtown area of Binghampton Ny is 725 ft lower at 875 ft.I know the city is much lower in the total annual snowfall.Probably not much more than 50 inches a year.That is the same as Southern Litchfield County. We do not have as much variation in elevation hence our weather records are at face value, not unrepresentative.

MJ:

Do us all a favor...move up to New Hampshire then YOU will all the snow/cold you want...and WE will be ride of YOU (lol).

K.C

Do us all a favor and learn how to type sentence. MJ is one of the most respect giving people on this blog even if he doesn't agree with what other people post.

I for one was glad that they got all the snow up in Penn and not around here. I can deal with winter in Connecticut because it really dosn't get going untill mid December and by mid March it's mostly history.

But if I had to put up with snow in October like the Great Lakes or inland places like PA in the mts I would go nuts. I like CT's winter - it short and sweet like me!

Gotta Love them Snoooooooooooooow covered hills!~Peace Glenna~

Thanks a lot, Glenna! Now that song will be stuck in my head all night! :)

Dr Mel, Geoff, Matt, Gil I think you guys need to be educated.

Sunny-This is when the yellow/orange orb in the sky, the center of our solar system, which is 93 million miles away, is visible to the naked eye. (note: key word there is "visible")

Cloudy is when those bags of water droplets/snow in the sky block the view of the previously mentioned weather phenomena (Sunny)

You seem to have them reversed as in Forecast for Today, Wednesday, October 21 ...Sunny!




You seem to have them reversed as (Forecast for Today Wednesday, October...Sunny!

Well it looks like the party is already in full swing (lol). Now that the heads of the “five weather families”( Shoreliner, Matt, MJ, Brian, and old SI) have reassembled once again I look forward to another round of spirited weather musings as we approach the coming cold season. Having read all the pre-winter forecasts from the players (NOAA, AccuWeather, …etc) I will give my both short/medium term forecast (November to early January) for the Tri-State region.

The first issue is with the coming El-Nino: A month ago, I was having real doubts that it would have much of an impact on the weather in the USA it was so weak. However, one of the things I'm beginning to see emerge in the last couple of weeks… is a split in the jet stream. From what I can see right now, there looks to be good upper level support for a continued separation of the jet streams. I believe it is a clear indication of the El Nino is slowly starting to get its act together. Often there is a split in the jet stream in the cold season in El Nino years. When this “split” happens…generally cold air has a hard time making out of Canada and draining down into the United States. So, although we will see a few low-pressure areas/frontal systems come through the Great Lakes and the northern Northeast…. the cool air behind each front will be fleeting. Most of the cold air builds into the Rockies and western Plains in the next two weeks without doubt. If this pattern holds – there will be little cold air for the next 30 to 45 days in the Atlantic States. In fact, the southern portions of the subtropical Atlantic States (SC southward) could become even warm again… with highs in the 80’s F next week and beyond. Tropical south Florida might see a delay in the coming of the dry season and the drier trade winds this fall.

November to December 30th Forecast Tri-State area:

With all the prewinter predicting going on… I will play the averages once again: I think the developing El-Nino should give us slightly warmer temperatures in the Eastern half of the USA for November and December. Areas south of the northern Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Upper New England…should see little truly cold air masses in November and early December. In terms of precipitation (rain/snow)… I think most of the snowfall in the Eastern States should be in the higher areas of the Great Lakes, the Appalachians (North Carolina/West Virginia, Penn), Upstate New York, and in central/northern New England (Boston northward). As is common, the East Coast/I-95 corridor metro area from New Haven/NYC south should see little snow before the New Year. Most of the East Coast might see slightly more rainfall than normal in November and December.

It will be very interesting to see if the current pattern holds in the next 4 to 6 weeks...

Si,

Lets see here. Cold airmasses are generally not all that cold in November and early December. True arctic air doesn't typically come into play until Mid Dec through Early March. Even a moderate El Nino will not be the true deciding factor in our winter weather. I think your going to see a slightly more variable swing in weather this winter in the CT RI, with bouts of Cold and snow and a few warmups along the way. El Nino affects western areas of the U.S much more direct than it's eastern counter parts.

Hello there, Si!

It's been awhile since we've last chatted. Did you have a nice Summer? I did, the nice Summer weather was in my area just in time for my Summer vacation. Perfect timing! :)

Thanks as always for your input, and I hope your el nino forecast is correct. Keep that cold air up in Canada where it belongs! :)

Talk to you later.

Shoreliner:
Glad to hear the summer went well for you. I also enjoyed the summer season as well, I was even able to squeeze in a modest tan for an old man (lol). We centrally had interesting summer…wet in the begins, then in mid July the rainfall seemed to shut off and we went the other way with a near rainless August and September, while we managed to get a weak semi-tropical depression to strike us, and of course big Bill had the headline for a week thankfully weakling and turning out to sea.

As we slowly head into the cool season the big topic seems to be the developing EL-Nino. I thought you and Brian might find this map interesting:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/images/temperature.gif

It shows every El-Nino since the 1940’s. As you can see…every single December-February period in EL –Nino years was milder than normal in the Northeastern USA. Both the 1982/1983 and 1991/1992 events…were much above normal in the Northern half of the USA. So playing it consertively, I think the chances are we should at least see normal tempretures in the Dec-early March time frame.

As far as what is in store in the coming 10 days… the cold air present on the northern Plains now behind the strom in the Midwest and its attendant cold front will fade coming east…with little of it ever making it to the Tri-State/East Coast. In fact, after the chill of this afternoon and tonight, in most areas temperatures should moderate to normal and beyond. Some modified cool air will then spread out across the Plains during the second half of the next week, reaching the East Coast next weekend in modified form. Before it gets here…there may be another surge of warm air in the Eastern USA with 70’s into the Tri-State and soutward.

So as we cross into early November…it looks as though there will be no real drastic changes in our weather. After the rain on Saturday…most of Sunday and next week should feature days in the 60 F range with sunshine and nights in the 40’s. Perfect fall weather. Enjoy.

I certainly will, Si! :)

I'll be praying for an easy Winter. We so deserve one after last year.

Shoreliner, Coming from your camp I thought all winters were easy in our areas. So what was different about last winter lol.

Si I think 70's may be a stretch even though today is in the upper 60's to near 70 with a strong low level southerly jet ahead of a cold front. But typically this time of year 60's are not that uncommon,even into Mid Nov. Thats why this is called a transition period. Same as April would be with cold and then warm. Now it's just reversed. I still think substantial snows are likely in our area during the winter. I think your going to see highly variable temp swings and frequent pattern shifts. Remember "normal" is relative

What was up on Saturday? I thought it felt like mid June, it was VERY humid and warm, temp hit 70F here in Groton! Where is the crisp fall weather, come on!

Brian:
I agree that the vigorous nonperiodic weather element is stronger in the cold season than in the warm season. However, I see more and more signs that the El-Nino is getting it’s act together. The monthly mean temps at both CT NWS stations (Bridgeport/Windsor Locks) was running near 4.2 F below normal 12 days ago. Now, that number has been shaved down to just 2.2 -2.5 F below normal. It will likely fall further this week. I think this October will end up less than 1 F below normal. Normally when we have an October that is within 1 F or so of normal above or below…the early part of winter tends to be normal or even mild.

But who really knows?

Si,

Your a smart man. You know your meterology. I'll def give u that. I feel as though this Oct is the same or even cooler than at this time last Oct. It's close. Not to say that this trend means a colder snowier winter or a warm snowless winter. Fact is nobody really knows until it happens. I snuck a peak at Accuweathers medium range forecast through about Nov 8th or so. Seems this week is near normal 58-62 ish then around the 4th of Nov or so A strong cold outbreak will set in. mid 40's or so. which for early Nov is quite Chilly. It wouldn't surprise me to see the middle or end of Nov return to near or slightly above normal temps. That is a reason why I feel you may very well see wild swings in temps this winter which usually mean wild weather. This could be the season in which u see a major blockbuster snow storm followed by 50 degree temps or higher a week later. It's going to be a battle from the El nino Driven temps of the plain states to the NAO cold blocking high to our north.

Hello again, Si,

I agree, the forecasters really don't know for sure what Winter will bring. They only tell them what the computer says, and they've proved to be inaccurate time after time.

I can only hope that you're correct with your El' Nino forecast and we have a nice quiet Winter. We so deserve it after last Winter!

That s/b they only tell US.

Gentlemen:
What most of you people seem to "forget" is that "25 years ago and beyond" Ct. used to get buried in snow each and every year. In addition the temps "did not" jump up and down as much as they do these days. The snow actually stayed on the ground until March. I can remember my father turning on the "Christmas lights" on Easter Sunday just to make a joke of the snow being "still on the ground". I am 51 years old and can remember CT. getting buried in snow up until I was about 25 years old.
Global Warming WORKS, without a doubt.
All you guys who are younger than 30 to 40 or from out of state will probably NOT remember anything like that. Ct. used to get big snow storms and the snow used to stay on the ground. The key words there are "used to". GLOBAL WARMING WORKS. No doubt about it. And yes the winter has always been "worse", to whatever degree, in land that along the shore in Ct., RI. and Ma.
So in conclusion, when it comes to winter weather, you young guys and you guys from of state just do not know what you’re talking about when it comes to winter in Ct.

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