NOAA called Bill pretty much dead on ten days out. They were a little off on Ana though. I give them an -A so far.

You answered your own question.
I still never know when I wake in the morning what the weather will be like in the evening.
Shore living is unpredictable.
Me too,and I like it!
It is good to track hurricanes and be on watch for twisters.
All the rest is predictable,snow in the winter make sure you have a shovel.
Rain year round make sure you don`t buid a house in a valley or your cellar will flood.
Or near a river that has a history of over flowing it`s banks.
Reinforce a beach house and make it waterproof, may as well have styrafoam furniture in a beach house.
~Peace Glenna~

The forecasters were right on with Bill! The storm did exactly what they said it would do. Now, let's see what our next one will do....

Bill wasn't much to write about here in Connecticut, but that's a good thing!! I was hoping my daughter would have better waves to swim in, but she had fun anyway!!

Dr. Mel,
If you can tell us that there is something brewing in Africa, I think that you are answering your own question. Remember the days of weather reporting when the weatherman drew a cartoon character with an umbrella over his head? Weather is now told to us by meteorologists Yes, we've come along way.

I would say forecasting hurricanes has improved over the past few years or so. As far as the next tropical system goes (Danny?) I wouldn't expect a major impact from him. All models take it east of our area. With the closest model bringing the storm up through Cape Cod. Even with that track only a well formed hurricane would have any major wind impact on our area. So maybe just some rain.

The prediction of huricane Bill was very good but the rest of the weekend forecast was horrible!

BTW (Visitor) not all TV weather guys and gals are Meteorologists. They are educated idiots doing the weather.
It's like when they tell us the temperature town by town. Give me a break. 63 in Hartford, 64 in West Hartford..howabout low to mid 60s.
Stop trying to localize the weather beause you might mention my town. Connecticut is a very small state and the temps don't vary that much!

WHERE IS THE 8 DAY FORECAST NOW?

I agree, what happened to the "8 Day Forecast" model, instead of this daily breakdown.

Having spent time in Southeast Asia, the Florida Keys, and going through Hurricane Carol in southeast Connecticut in 1954…I have always had a tremendous respect for the tropical cyclone. I have long said that if you live south of Boston, within 50 miles or so of the Atlantic…the tropical cyclone is by far the biggest weather hazard you face.

My main concern is the apathy toward tropical cyclones in the CT/Long Island/Rhode Island region. In today’s fast-paced world, folks tend to forget the disasters of the past and attention spans are short. There is this myth that tropical cyclones are so rare north of North Carolina. Consider that in the period from 1938 to 1961 (just 23 years) …7 hurricane and 5 tropical storms directly impacted the LI/CT/RI region, killing hundreds of people and doing millions in damage. When you look at the long term data, return periods for hurricanes and major hurricanes…is greater in places like Long Island, southeast Connecticut/Rhode Island…than places in Florida. Until Hurricane Andrew hit south Florida in 1992…Dade County, FL had went longer than Suffolk County (Long Island), NY without a hurricane landfall.

The 1954 and 1955 hurricane seasons produced catastrophic damage that affected the densely populated Northeast Atlantic states, forcing increased attention from politicians in Washington. Congress then appropriated increased money for the Weather Bureau in 1956 that included a new radar network, an improved hurricane warning network, and hurricane research (The National Hurricane Research Project). It’s an interesting fact that the seeds of the National Hurricane Center (TPC)… where born out of the onslaught of hurricanes that swept up the Eastern seaboard in the 1950’s.

Please bring the 8-day forecast back!

So it looks like the NWS stating Danny is tracking for southern New England and to be here by Saturday evening as a hurricane. This should be fun. So when is WTNH going into war mode for this?

Just one other note to weather watchers…the Atlantic Ocean is now 80 F right to the south shore of Long Island. At this moment, the NWS observations hare showing…the buoy 20 miles south of Fire Island at 78 F…Hudson Canyon at 79 F…and the Central Long Island Sound buoy off the coast of Connecticut at 75 F.

26 C waters (79.8 F ) is now touching Long Island, NY…while the Gulf Stream has a substantial patch of 29 C waters (85 F) just a few hundred miles south of Long Island/Connecticut. This is a good 4 to 5 F above normal. The very warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic may help to keep any hurricane that threaten the East Coast south of Boston quite intense. The positive side is that the Tri-State area/Middle Atlantic is on tap for a very mild fall… at least within in 25 to 40 miles of the Atlantic.

Here is a current image.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.c.gif

Si,

True atlantic ocean temps are a tad warmer than normal. However when Hurricanes reach this latitude they are not in a favorable enviorment. Strong southwesterly shear is never a good ingrediant for a strong hurricane. Also we are almost always on the weaker side. Such is forecast to be the case with Danny. Even if say he grows to an unexpected 90 mph hurricane. A track over Nantucket would bring breezy conditions at best to much of Western Ct with possible 30-40 mph winds over eastern CT. Several inches of rain would fall but how many times has that happened recently. Other than some rain don't expect much from Danny. As far as a mild fall. Nothings for certain. Just because forecasters use the word EL Nino doesn't mean a mild fall/winter. TO many variables that come into play.

Brian:

Just remember...Long Island/Connecticut was not on the "weaker side" in the hurricanes of 1938, 1954, 1960, 1976, and 1985. I was in Gloria in 1985 and the eye passed just to the west of New Haven. New Haven was right in the area of max winds and had 95-mph gusts.

But lets' hope your right, and Danny heads out to sea.

WTNH's Weather Team~& ALL the on air anchors, are refreshing & so friendly. Especially the weekday Good Morning CT. Team. But~Matt Scott~weekends~oh~so obnoxcious. I won't watch because of him.

Dr. Mel,
It would be nice to have the microcast on the web.