Good Morning,
Twas' the night before Christmas and poor Dr Mel was sad at the window, not a snowflake fell. He ran in confusion just like a Mad Hatter. High Pressure had moved in. That's what was the matter. He looked to the sky as the clouds moved on by, the weather was controlled by that awful High. As we know , meteorologists work as a team, six inches of snow had fallen . It was all a bad dream. So, to avoid a panic the next Christmas eve, don't eat before retiring and then just believe.

Mel,

To be honest, I think we’ve had a pretty typical East Coast winter so far. I think we tend to concentrate on the few severe winters…and ignore what the vast number average winters give us. Look at the chances of a white Christmas: as I remember; only the northern tier of states has a good chance for a white Christmas. Here in the Tri-State area, it’s only a 1 in 4 chance that we’ll have snow on the ground on December 25th.


Of course winter is all reltive I guess.

One look at what going on in the northern Plains reminds me why I moved to the East Coast to get away from the severe Midwest winters. I have experienced 19 below zero windchills once in the Midwest. When I read this one this morning I can feel for the folks up there. Today in Connecticut and Long Island we’ll be enjoying sunshine at 55 F (parts of interior south Jersey may crack 70 F)…while this is what the folks up in the northland will be dealing with:

Wind Chill Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
426 AM MST MON DEC 15 2008

MTZ009>014-044>051-054-151900-
/O.CON.KTFX.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-081215T1900Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-CASCADE-
CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-TOOLE-LIBERTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROWNING...CUT BANK...HAVRE...
GREAT FALLS...FORT BENTON...HELENA...LINCOLN...SHELBY...CHESTER...
CONRAD...CHINOOK...CHOTEAU...FAIRFIELD...STANFORD...LEWISTOWN...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS
426 AM MST MON DEC 15 2008

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY.

LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...WILL
ALLOW FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO RANGE FROM 40 TO 55 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
WINDS...WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. FROST BITE CAN OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS
7 MINUTES WITH THESE WIND CHILLS. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...
MAKE SURE YOU WEAR APPROPRIATE WINTER CLOTHING. DO NOT VENTURE OUT ALONE.

we shall see... the snow does not bother me too much...but the cold, as one gets older, tends to wear one down and win by attrition... it would be nice for a snowfall on christmas eve...

for now, you and your 'minions on the chan 8 weather team just keep today's unseasonable temps around... no diabolical furnace 'bindge drinking'on my oil...

"When the days begin to lengthen, the cold starts to strengthen..." That's an "old" saying? It's new to me. I've never heard it before.

We've lost SIX HOURS of daylight since the Summer Solstice, Dr. Mel? How depressing! Of course, it's probably "only" FIVE hours since the whole daylight saving thing, as I figured out years ago, is just an illusion anyway. Changing the clocks twice a year is nothing but a waste of time. Changing the clock really doesn't lengthen or shorten the daylight hours. The daylight hours would be longer in the spring and summer and shorter in fall and winter whether or not we changed the clocks. I'm sure most folks have noticed, as have I, that "Daylight Saving Time" ends, for all practical purposes, weeks before it OFFICIALLY ends and we have to go through that clock changing foolishness again. Some parts of the country don't even observe Daylight Saving Time.

Si,

This is not a typical winter so far. Temps have been normal but due to wild swings of warm and cold. Snowfall has been good bit below average. At this time last year which was a normal winter I recorded,10.75 inches of snow already with 10 of that falling on the famous thursday the 13th debacle where kids on I95 from Providence to Warwick were stuck on school buses till nearly midnight because the storm hit hard with very heavy snow at the worst possible time. Another 5 inches fell on the 16th. So far this winter a pathetic 1.3 inches has fallen. For the season last year I recorded 32 inches of snow. The way it's going if we break into double digits it will be a miracle, (snow lovers frustration) small shot at some minor snow/ice accums Wednesday A.M if the cold can hold long enough and as far as a white Xmas goes I think Sunday would be our only shot but odds aren't in our favor. This winter sucks so far. So much for Dr Mels climatology and percentages.

Brian visitor, You need to be patient. There is still plenty of time for us to receive above normal snowfall. You must remember, Conecticut climatology dictates a late winter because of the water temperature of long island sound.Heavy snowfalls are rare before late December, which means after Dec 20 In coastal ct.The midwest receives heavy snow earlier in the winter than ct.However, we receive snowfall fairly late in the spring compared to the middle of the country.This is due to the chilly long island sound in Mar. and Apr. The NWS office at Sikorsky Airport In the lordship section of South Stratford CT. has received measurable snowfall as late as Apr 19. This is suprisingly late for a mild coastal location.I agree that we will not receive a record amount of snow, however i do believe that our annual snowfall will be somewhat above average, about 30 inches, the normal is 25 inches.I would definately take Dr Mel's take on the winter seriously, I have followed him for over 30 years on radio tv and the Hartford courant and his take on the coming winter has always been close to the mark, much better than the so called experts.

Brian visitor , I am posting this second blog, i just want to add a few more thoughts about coastal ct snowfall. In this area 7 of the 10 largest snowfalls occurred in Feb.The reason for this is because according to climatology , Feb brings the High pressure in hudson bay in central Canada further east. We get a more direct shot of cold air as the high builds into northern new england. This is the only way coastal ct con get an all snow event, Bpt, sikorsky has had there record snowstorms in Feb. The record event was on Feb 9,1969, 17.7 inches of snow for a 2 day event. More recent on Feb 17 2003 a near record snowfall occurred 17.3 inches only a fraction of an inch from establishing a new record. Also about 17 inches also fell in 1978 a Feb storm.Dont lose hope, Feb is when it happens.

Brian visitor,Even though i am a snow lover , i have to agree with Si visitor concerning the probs of receiveing a white christmas in coastal ct.I think coastal ct residents should keep on dreaming. The official definition of a white christmas is one inch of snow on the ground on the 25 th of Dec.The Probs for Bpt is only 24 percent, one in 4 , 24 in 100 winters .I feel Dr Mel is only hoping Northern ct will get a white christmas. The probs for Windsor Locks is 49 percent , 1 in 2 much better odds.There is one town in Ct , Norfolk , high in the hills of litchfield county , near the Mass line at an elev of 1339 ft above sea level, this location has a good chance of receiving a white christmas 80 percent , 8 in 10.The best chance is in the white mts of New Hampshire, Pinkham notch el 2000ft , 96 percent chance, almost a guarantee. Caribou me., 94 percent, St Johnsbury Vt 89 percent , Concord Nh 76 percent, Portland me 71 percent. If you dont like snow , move to Atlantic City Nj 8 percent, Philadelphia 12 percent.

MJ,Tryin not to lose hope but thought for sure we would be off to a better start than this. True the biggest of snow storms do occur in Jan and Feb but if you don't have the right set up than it doesn't matter what month in winter it is. We need cold high pressure over quebec and low pressure moving just inside the benchmark to get our big snow events. While I'm blogging, did anyone check weather.com and see the forecast for tomorrow. It has my area of West Warwick Progged for rain to snow with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation high early near 42 but falling to 32 in the afternoon. With the warm ground, I will believe it when I see it.

No complaints from me so far. The slop as I call it can stay out of my area and I'll be a happy camper!

If all you people what so much snow in winter...why do you live in southern CT?

What do you expect!

I agree with JC. We're in Southern CT, so basically all we get is slop (or sloppy seconds). I would actually prefer more snow and less of the icy crap. I fell one time when there was ice and then snow and severely bruised my tailbone. Had there been snow and then snow, I probably would not have fallen. I also do remember that Southern CT used to get more snow when I was a kid. Oh, that's right, if you're Sarah Palin, is it cause God is huggin' you a little closer?

Just to keep the climate facts on the “up and up”so to speak…..let me just correct a few things…

They’re “is” a famous post-solstice proverb “ as the days lengthen, the cold strengthens”. However, it is often misunderstood scientifically. After the winter solstice (December 21st)..mean temperatures continue to fall - but only until around January 16th or so. After that point – incoming solar radiation starts to overtake outgoing nocturnal long wave radiation. So to put it in perspective – if you’re a winter lover, after this Sunday, you really have only 25 days, then the temperature starts getting warmer day by day, and keeping things frozen become an uphill battle.

Brian:

Despite what you may have been told (or they say on TV) ..this has been a typical winter in the Tri-State area so far. Temps have been +/- within 1 F or so of normal. Snowfall has been right where is should be. Take Bridgeport for example: so far this winter…3.5 inches has fallen so far. If you average out the 25-inches of snow Bridgeport receives in an average winter – it comes out to around 6-inches per month in the 4 winter months (Dec – to early March). Also, from what I can see…you live a bit more north than most of us up near Warwick, RI. You’re closer to the New England climate zone than we in Connecticut – especially southern Connecticut (Providence averages 35-inches of snow a winter, while Bridgeport and NYC average 25 –iches) . So if its snow your after, you seem to be moving in the wrong direction (lol). Still, so far this winter has been pretty normal by East Coast standards.


MJ:

Not to be the climate nerd – but it is scientifically untrue that Connecticut (or anywhere else along the East Coast south of Boston) receives snowfall fairly late in the spring compared to the middle of the country. In fact, if you look at NWS data for stations in the Tri-State area like Bridgeport or NYC for example…. Monthly snow is as follows.

November – 0.7 inches
December - 3.6 inches
January - 8.5 inches
Febuary – 7.2 inches
March - 4.3 inches
April - 0.9 inches = 25 - inches

As you can see, more than half (55%) of the seasonal snowfall in NWS Bridgeport falls in just 59 days on average (January & February). After mid March (around the start of spring on March 21st) there is a 83 % chance (averaged out in the long term) that no more snow will fall at NWS Bridgeport until the next winter. April cannot even muster 1 inch of snow on average across southern CT. A check of other stations in the Atlantic states below Massachusetts would show the same thing. Also Long Island sound never gets cold enough to “help” support snow like the Great Lakes do. Although it is true there have been a few times in the “last hundred fifty years” in April (the last one in 1987 – 22 years ago) that NWS Bridgeport has received measurable snowfall…it is extremely remote (like a 90 F day in February in Hartford). Meanwhile, Midwest cites like Milwaukke or Chicago have had a foot or more of snow after March 21st quite often (the last one just a few winters ago). You can check it out yourself here at the NOAA site http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate_cms.html#Almanacs

Finally, concerning the probs of receiving a white Christmas that I mentioned…is not just for coastal CT – but most of the southern half of the State south of Hartford. Most places along the East Coast from southern Rhode Island south… to south Jersey have a less than 1 in 4 chance of having snow on the ground on December 25th. As you move into the subtropical portion of the Eastern Seaboard from eastern south Maryland/Virginia southward…there are few occurrences of a white Christmas in the last 400 years.

JC, lack of winter weather is WHY I live in Southern Connecticut! I am thrilled when it falls everywhere but where I am.

Not a snow lover, but an inch or two for Xmas would be fine by me. Let it sit for a week, till New Years, then right back up to 60 degrees, that is my idea of a good winter. Hate the ice, at least you can drive better in snow, and slip less!

Really loved the snow when my kids were small, and I was MUCH younger, but at my age, no thanks, I like it warm. Oh well, such is life. :-)

Si, Maybe I should have said we are below normal in snowfall SO FAR. Dec is not over yet and in a somewhat big swing in the models they now want to produce 1 to locally 4 inches of snow in our area tomorrow night and possibly more substantial snow for the weekend,but that far out is a long shot as we know. I do live up near Warwick, West Warwick to be exact,about a half mile east of the town of Coventry, not to be confused for Coventry Ct, There is a Coventry Ri. We do average a bit more snow than south coastal residence but it isn't a major major difference. We'll see if tomorrow night is another sub par performance.

One thing funny though - Geoff must really want winter so bad…the NWS high temperature forecast for Monday December 21st is 38 F…Geoff showed a high of 20 F for the same day.

Why is it always so much colder in Geoff Fox’s world than in the rest of Connecticut (lol).

As much as I like Geoff Fox, I find I really cannot go by his forecasts, because they're always hyped up. He always makes it out worse than it actually is. I guess that's what happens when you're a Winter type dreamer.

Si Visitor, I am going to have to draw the line.I agree with you that coastal ct has very mild winters.I know that you are familiar with all the sources of climate data.I feel that perhaps you are not considering that the maritime effect in coastal ct does not go very far inland. To prove my point, go under noaa online climate data- Now data.All the NWS sites around the country have access to detailed climate data from around the country.I happen to live in Shelton Ct , about 10 miles from long island sound at an elevation of about 500 ft.I know that my average annual sonowfall is about 35 inches.The closest climate site to my area is Danbury ct.The elevation of this site is 405 ft .Danbury averages 41.1 inches of snow a year based on 1971-2000 period.Chicago o hare averages 37.5 inches a year based on the same recent 1971-2000 period. Averge annual temperature shows that chicago o hare is 1.1 degrees lower than Danbury ct.Danbury 50.0 vs 48.9 o hare not a huge difference.The mean temp in Jan is only about 3 degrees lower at o hare vs Danbury 26.4 vs 23.5. I respect your opinion, again coastal ct winters are patethic, Danbury ct is a great winter climate not severe but intersting.

When I was little, I always wished for snow, and when I did, my grandmother would say to me, "Wait 'til you have to drive in it!" Well, as usual, Gramma was right. Once I began driving, snow wasn't quite so appealing anymore, except to look at it. Some snow on the ground for Christmas is always nice, though.

Shoreliner, I find Geoff's forecasts to be quite accurate. He's not the only forecaster who'll go overboard with snow total amounts. Besides, I prefer that the forecasters OVERestimate rather than UNDERestimate snow totals. I like it better when we're told we're going to get a lot of snow and then don't get much, than being told that we're not going to get very much and then we get dumped. I don't like that "six inches of partly cloudy" stuff.

MJ:


Your original comment was that southern CT receives snow late into spring, which I as mentioned (and the data show)…scientifically is untrue. After March 21st…about 83% of the time, most of Connecticut will not see another inch of snow until the coming next December. The “snow season” in Connecticut and most of the Tri-State area, is from mid December to around mid March…only about 90 days long on average.

As far as the “maritime effect” …there is a bit of confusion about that. The entire Eastern Seaboard from Maine to Florida within 50-miles of the Atlantic are affected “to some degree” by the warm ocean. Although parts of southwestern CT (like Shelton) are not as low-lying as much of southern and eastern CT, the Atlantic has an effect on the climate of that area too. As far as monthly mean temperatures in Danbury…there are no official data sites up there - so a comparison with Chicago is difficult.

As far as seasonal snowfall…as I mentioned before…there are only two (2) places that the NWS records seasonal snowfall in CT: Stratford (25.2 inches a year) and Windsor Locks (44.8 inches a year). The bulk of CT falls between those two extremes…perhaps averaged out about 30 –35 –inches a season. However, the climate facts stand…nowhere in CT, not Danbury, New London, New Haven…nowhere (on average) is there substantial snow after about mid-March. Not only is there little snow…but at 41 latitude the sun angle is swiftly rising and ground temperature are warming quickly. In the Midwest, not only are cites like Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, …etc farther north, but the intense blasts of subzero temperatures has frozen the ground to much greater depths than anywhere on the East Coast. In fact, look at much of southern CT…the ground never even freezes in many years. I till my soil here in coastal CT in late February in preparation for spring planting.

I would say that all of Connecticut,..not just far coastal and southern locations…. has very mild winters compared to much of the USA mainland. Take this December so far…Chicago has had a mean temperature of 24 F, Milwaukee 22 F ……..while Bridgeport has had a mean temperature of 38 F and NYC a mean of 40 F (16 to 18 F warmer). A few days ago there where 20 - foot snowdrifts and windchills to 66 below zero in North Dakota and Minnesota. Those – 20 F temps up in the Midwest always moderate to 30 F or so by the time they make it this far east and run into that humid subtropical Atlantic air. Winter in the Tri-State area is like the Bahamas by comparison.

Finally, good heavens, please don’t stop Geoff or Mel from overhyping snow and cold here in CT. There is a great hilarity in watching East Coast weathercasters and marketing concerns attempt to hype winter in a mild, humid, lower middle latitude climate. It can be quite entertaining for an old scientist.

si visitor, I just want you to be aware that all the national weather service sites have online weather data. Go under New York City/ Upton Ny- left bar- local climate, Now Data, Noaa online weather data,Months avgs and totals, Danbury, snowfall, 1971-2000 ,go.Danbury ct is an official site. The city has a long history of Meteorological observations, the home of wcsu weather station, Dr mel,s teaching university. You can compare in this manner across the country. I appoligize for the poor grammar , i am at work and have a limited time to post.

MJ:

I was aware that all the national weather service sites have online weather data, but a good point.

However, many people in climate are very cautious about some of these reporting stations because they are using shorter data sets. For instance NWS Stratford has been in the same spot since 1948...while some of the Central Park, NY obs have been taken for 148 years.

I'm with JJ, a bit for Christmas so Santa can make his deliveries easier.....then away with it....

chris magyar is gay

I saw some of the pictures from up in the Dakotas...55 below zero and 20-foot snow drifts.

We complain in CT when it 30 F and we get an inch or two of snow. (lol).

Ted, I wouldn't complain if it meant my work was closed. It's when you have to struggle to get there, that snow is a real pain. I usually take the bus to work from East Haven to New Haven. If it is icy or slippery, that means I have to slowly make my way the half block from my house to the bus stop and then 2-3 blocks in New Haven to work (or get a transfer). Then do it all over again at nighttime.

I do work with a lady who will pick me up and drop me off in nasty weather, which works out well, but it's still a hassle at work, cause some people live farther away and don't show up, and then you have to do their work as well as yours for the day.

Okay, enough griping! If we're going to get snow, let it pound us and keep us all home from work and school!!

I agree with Mom! Snow is nothing but a big hassle. I will never understand all these people who think that it is so beautiful and so wonderful. It does nothing but cause problems. All these people who think it's wonderful either don't work so they don't have to worry about going out in it, or they live 2 minutes from where they work. Not everyone is lucky enough to live close to work!

Time to once again try 'working' on my family to convince them that we need to make a move South.

We really can't complain.

Todays snow droped 1 -inch here on the New Haven shoreline. It is already gone, I can see my grass.

Give me a mild southern CT winter any day!

Well you weather guys botched it again. 1 to 3 inches? Wake up to nothing! Good goin as usual.

a half inch of snow/ice glop at my house in West Warwick and it's gone already. Not exactly 1-3 inches but more concerned with Friday. I Know nothing has fallen yet and don't count your snowflakes before they fall but I got to know what SI and shoreliner are thinking about Friday and for that matter Sundays storm.

As long as our dazes/days be merry,we should be fine.The View gals said Comfort and Joy,and out of Elisabeths fountian were wishes of Ho,Ho,Ho!Keeping our spirits bright is keeping the glistining tight.
~Peace Glenna~

Brian:

Although I am not a snow lover…I am actually hoping we finally get some snow – poor Geoff is foaming at the mouth (lol). Now, I’ll give you my prediction (minus the hype of course). Lets see how well this old man can do without all these super computers and just an old fashion weather map and a few satellite pics…

Although I do see a moderate “snow event” (I don’t think this could be called a true snowstorm) this Friday… I think some import notes are an order. The moderate surface high over SE Canada looks like it will slowly slide south in the next 24 –36 hours. I think this high… combined with the warmer easterly flow (I know” that darn Atlantic Ocean again) will limit the cold air in place across most of the Tri-State area (NYC/Long Island/NJ/and southern CT. I would not be surprised to see a change over to all rain across coastal CT /Long Island and NYC for a time. Still, interior areas in southern CT should hold onto enough cold air for snow to fall and accumulate. Ground temps are still quite warm (as evidenced by the speed at with the inch of snow we received last night - completely melted by midmorning today). So it may take a few hours for the snow to really stick with any authority. The semi-weak low will quickly move east-northeast away from south of Long Island by Friday night.

As far as total snowfall…I think interior western Connecticut, areas north and west of NYC, and northwest New Jersey will see the most…perhaps up to 6 to 8 inches…. I think the NYC metro, interior Long Island, most of northern interior New Jersey, southern Connecticut, and parts of interior Rhode Island will get 4 to 6 inches….and coastal New Jersey, the north and south shores of Long Island, and coastal Connecticut will see about 3 to 4 inches. However, I would not be surprised to see only 2-inches or so across coastal areas if rain/sleet mixes in.

Since it is now already December 18…and the ground is bare across the Tri-State area…you snow lovers had better enjoy it while it lasts. NOAA sees a mild January shaping up.

Shoreliner, thanks for agreeing with me. Everyone else thinks I'm nuts! Well, I probably am - I have two teenagers in my home!!

Anyway, Friday's storm is going to be a hassle if it turns out as they say. Our office luncheon is supposed to be tomorrow and I and a few people might be there, but many others won't be able to be there, which is sort of sad. My office manager, being smart for once (just teasing) wanted to have the luncheon today, but my boss refused that idea, and I think it's cause she's in a deposition today.

Oh, well, shouldn't complain too much about work. I actually got my bonus, which isn't huge by Wall Street standards, but when I think of all the people losing their jobs, I say thank God, I'm truly blessed.

Mom, tell your teens the same thing that I tell my nieces and nephews: We'll see how much you like it when you have to start driving in it! :)

Folks come on...it's a few inches of snow! It will be gone by Sunday night as rain moves in.

Nothing melts snow faster than rain. So lets enjoy it while it lasts. We still likley end up with another green Christmas.

Are they seriously going to cancel school before the first snowflake even falls tomorrow? Probably.

I bet you by 4pm on the shoreline, there won't even be an inch on the ground, and the kids will have been home all day.

I really dislike the hype they give these storms - it's like showtime for these guys. People depend on honest forecasts, so how about toning down the "kind of storm you see once or twice a season" bs?

Si...You sound like Bob Dylan "don`t need the weatherman to know which way the wind blows!lol ,I personally am looking to the snow covered hills!~Peace Glenna~mercury must be in waltz mode...lol

I'm driving up from Fl on monday, please turn up the heat Dr. Mel! PLEASE!

I think we'll get some snow, and might be the over 6 inches forecast - but that's for the entire event, which is to last all day Friday and into Saturday. It's not a blizzard, so no reason to get all worked up and cancel everything.
And by the way, my college in New Haven already cancelled classes for tomorrow.
I just don't get it.

Si, I don't totally disagree with your thinking. It's not like we haven't been screwed out snow before. However I think with recent model trends being a bit farther south that will allow for more of a northerly wind component to allow for mostly snow, exception may be immediate south coast and Long Island where some sleet may mix in for a time. As far as ground temp go, while the ground isn't frozen a foot down, tonight will fall back into the 20's this combined with the potential for heavy snow with allow the snow to accumulate quickly. Also dewpoints are fairly low so once the snow begins evaporational cooling will most likely drop the temp down into the 20's. I think the ingrediants are there we just have to see where the heavy snow bands set up. If they materialize someone will see a foot of snow perhaps a bit more. Now we need Sundays storm to do the same trend farther south.

Uh, some people would say we do not need Sunday's storm to do the same thing. Not all of us get paid when our business is closed due to the weather. And likely it will just be enough to cause bad driving conditions for the commute.

Right on, No We Don't! I agree 100% I remember last year one of Brian's arguments was 'just use a vacation day!' I was thinking to myself, did it ever occur to you that maybe people want to save those days for vacation & really don't want to have to WASTE them on snow (or SUCK, as I now call it). The SUCK can stay out of my area, and I'll be a happy camper!

Fog does a pretty good job getting rid of SUCK as well. Hopefully as the temps rise this weekend, a nice fog bank will come in off of the sound, and eat up all the SUCK on the ground. Then the rain can finish up what the fog missed.

I'm dreaming of a Green Christmas!

It certainly is interesting living in New England. Jeff, I live on the Waterbury/Wolcott line and it is snowing like crazy out there, but it is also thundering. That's New England for you. Have a Very Merry Christmas!

It is very interesting living in New England...we have a 'Noreaster' outside and its lighting and thundering! Crazy! Although, I do have to say...it is beautidul outside...glad im watching from in doors. :) Have a Happy Holiday!

11 inches of snow here in West Warwick R.I Got to enjoy these kind of storms

I think the snow was a nice experince. We had about 4 to 6 inches here across south CT, the temp was abot 35 F so the kids(and adults) could enjoy it, and since it was a Friday we all had a nice long weekend.

Now my question is ...will the snow on the ground last till Christmas Day?

Or are we in for another green Connecticut Christmas?

Dr. Mel,

As someone in the know, you need to publicly address your relationship with a former student of yours William Jaquemin at Western Ct State University.

I pray and hope you will address this issue asap.

Thanks,

WCSU alumni student

Brian visitor, I told you to be patient regarding snow events this winter.I measured 9.1 inches in Shelton ct on a snowboard.This is a healthy amount for Dec.I have studied past winters and have found that when oct and nov are below normal in temps and december ends within a degree of normal even on the plus side, we end up with a fairly cold and snowy winter.I know we will get a thaw on christmas week , however winter will make a comeback in Jan and Feb.The reason for this is that there is going to be a snowcover in northern new england and long island sound is running at least near average. The real mild winters do not set up like this. I do not believe in global warming. I suggest that you visit these 2 websites, www.iceagenow.com and icecap.

Hopefully if Winter must make it's unfortunate return to this area, it'll wait until I am basking in the warmth of the South.

Bring on the thaw!

Counting the days until I head South, counting the days until I head South....

Brian/MJ:

Although I’m certainly not a winter fan…I’m glad you folks finally got a little snow. Seems the winter fans on the East Coast always watch winter from the grandstand. My predictions were pretty close: Much of interior CT got around 6 to 8 inches on average, while the coastal areas got about 4 to 5 inches. We were so close to the snow - no snow line once again. Places as close as Atlantic City, NJ had just rain with zero snow. So for the snow lovers it was a close call - but they made it!

Now for the bad news: Winter fans should enjoy the snow-cover and cold as much as they can…for it will be quite fleeting. As I mentioned before….snow and cold can never hang on long-term in the Atlantic States from CT southward. So get ready..here comes the rain and warmth. Here’s how I see the next 10 days:

By Monday night…things will start to change. As we move through Tuesday …the upper level flow will flatten out to a more normal winter pattern across the USA. This solid zonal flow will lock the door on the cold up in Canada. As we move through this week…milder pacific air will cross the US mainland from northern Nevada to New York City. This will allow temperatures to moderate from the 20’s to the 40’s in a matter of days. By Wednesday, with surface high pressure will be building off the south Atlantic coast, warm air advection will once again spread across the Eastern Seaboard. The near 50 F air temperatures, and rain…will just about melt all of the snow from central CT southward and across western and northern NJ. Amazingly, there is a fair chance that from central CT southward…there will be no snow on the ground on December 25th. So we have about 40 hours left of the cold…and maybe the snow too.

As we go through next week …it will be interesting to see how much of the snowcover will be able to survive the combination of mild Pacific air and a southwest advection of warm air from the subtropical South Atlantic States. Think of it as a war between the gods of heat and the gods of cold. I wonder who’ll win?

Si, I'll be rooting for the gods of heat! Keep the cold air up in Canada where it belongs!

Si visitor, congratulations on a very accurate forecast for friday and saturdays snowstorm.I am begining to see how climate science can be just as useful as high tech computers.I remember a storm about a year ago last Jan , they were hyping it up based on computer models, saying southern ct would get up to a foot of snow, not realizing that on that Sat , the day before the storm, the high temp was 50 degrees, late the next day not a drop of snow fell on the shoreline.The only reason we are getting a little snow this year is because the fall is running a little colder than average,long island sound is running a little colder, allowing some snow on the shoreline.You are correct,they hype the forecast and rely on the computers too much and do not exercise common sense.

Speaking of dreams,why is the echo from the gays (no we can`t) when Barack said (yes we can).How did the `t wind up on the end of can.The gay folk will be pure white for Christmass at the bashing of the emotions.
~Peace Glenna~

Food for thought/dreams.Barack,Your smile flew over the oceans, your smile flew over the seas,your smile came strait back to you and smiled again to thee,sooooo,bring back,oh bring back oh bring back that smile to thee...A frown is a smile turned upside down.
~Peace Glenna~Melody to my Bonnie lyes over the ocean!

MJ your right I need more patience but can't help it man as a snow lover it sucks getting no snow. My area did quite well this weekend. 11 inches Friday another 1.5 on Saturday and 3.75 today. hopefully January and February are as kind. Weather guys actually were pretty accurate this go around

Hi Dr. Mel,

Could News Channel 8 do a story on how asinine it was of Farmington School District to neglect to institute a delay on the morning of December 22, 2008?

320 school delays, and Farmington refuses to see sense. What is wrong with this district? I'm not even a student - I'm a parent concerned for the safety of my child. Rest assured, they will be hearing from me...I'd just like them to hear from you too.

I just hope no one gets hurt today.

Look on the bright side...starting today...the days start getting LONGER...

"When the days begin to lengthen, the cold starts to strengthen"

You gotta admit, some of the wishful thinking on the part of the winter type dreamers is pretty amusing!

Shoreline visitor, There is scientific basis to the saying, when the days start to lengthen , the cold starts to strengthen.The mean temps continue to fall as the lenght of daylight starts to increase as of a few days ago, Dec21.The lowest mean temp in Ct. will continue to go down until Jan26 - Jan31.The mean temps will drop about five degrees from now until the end of Jan.

I saw how sad Geoff seemed about the coming warm up and all the snow melting...so I wrote him something from my heart to his...

Poor Geoff was sad, the winds over the East Coast turned bad.
He knew it would happen - eventually that cold air would flatten.

We all know its tough for snow in the Tri-State to last…
because a south wind can come quite fast.

Old Geoff knows the cold in New York City will always give way …
cause at 40 degrees latitude - warm air advection has the last say. The snow will soon melt on the Jersey Pike…because Hudson Bay highs eventually take a hike.

Although snow covered the green Connecticut grass at Yale…
Geoff just knew - somehow warm subtropical air will soon prevail.
Its not fair! The snow lasts all winter in the Midwest… along the East Coast -its just a few weeks at best.

So we try to enjoy the winter in the Tri-State area, fleeting we know…
soon that Bermuda High will be back…and that strong southerly flow.

tell kent pearce that the man in the wheelchair lives in the bus stop. i work for the town, and that poor man will be out there the hole winter.so if anybody thinks they got it bad,just look at this homeless man in a wheelchair. thank you..

Si, yeah isn't that something, that Ct and R.I are next to a warm ocean and we still average pretty close to what Chicago averages for snowfall in a winter season. Water temps in the sound and off capecod down into the upper 30's and low 40's. True a warm up is coming, but it will get cold again and it will snow again, good chance of a couple more snow storms like fridays 10 to 12 incher. Still got January, Feb and March. 18 inches of snow for the season at my house in West Warwick R.I

Thank god there's warm air coming in ahead of this next storm! Rain, all rain! Sorry, snow lovers! Actually, no, I'm not! Hee hee hee hee....

I like that poem, Si! Especially the part about the return of the bermuda high! Bring it on, I can't wait!

I wonder if Sarah Palin lined the boarders of Alaska with snowblower and aimed them at the sky and the jet steam and snowed the States.
~Peace Glenna~

Brian visitor, Good point, many inland areas of ct and ri average as much snow as Chicago. I will site some examples from noaa online climate data. Danbury Ct averages more snow than Chicago 41.1 vs 37.5 . These are based on the same 30 year period 1971-2000.Even at sea level at Providence Ri averages 31.1 inches of snow, i am sure your town West Warwick Ri must average a little more than TF green airport.I agree with your assessment of southern new england climatology,inland areas do fairly well with snow.The reason we do well is because we get more precipitation than Chicago, only the imediate shoreline gets jipped, Bridgeport ct only gets 24.8 inches of snow. I am a snowlover and i can see you are one also. I apreciate your take on the weather. Keep in touch. Mj visitor.

MJ/BRIAN:

Brian:

As far as ocean temps: Keep in mind, that winds blow over vast oceanic areas… hundreds of miles. It is not as if a south wind only passes over the 8-miles of Long Island Sound…and then stops (lol). Also, Atlantic Ocean temps as close as 85-miles off Long Island are still 12 C (54 F). You can see it here: http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp2.htm.

I know you boys may be a bit disappointed that the snowcover will be gone so soon. The proximity to the warm subtropical Atlantic is one of the reasons snowcover is so brief along the East Coast compared to the West/Midwest. According to NOAA, Chicago has 66 days with snow cover, Milwaukee, has 83, Duluth has 94…. while Hartford has 44 and Bridgeport only 28. Most of Wyoming, Montana, the Dakota’s, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, west-central Colorado, eastern Utah, Northern New York, and northern New England…all have more than 110 days of snowcover . So in the next couple of days while Chicago and Milwaukee will be adding to their snowpack…the 45 to 50 F temps and rain will be totally washing away ours.

This is another reason that Midwest winters are also so much colder than East Coast winters (among other things)… the snowpack in the Midwest reflects a lot of the suns energy right back into space. In the Tri-State area, because snowcover is so brief…the sun’s energy heats the ground directly. This is one of the reasons why the mean temp in January in Chicago is 22 F…while the mean temp in Bridgeport or NYC is 30 F.

I hope you boys aren’t sore that the rain and mild temps are coming to execute the snowcover. Remember what I mentioned long ago…” sustained snow and cold along the East Coast south of MA is fleeting. So get out there on Wednesday morning and enjoy the snow….because the warm monsoon rains are so close - you can almost hear the gusher.

MJ,Yes my area of West Warwick RI averages about 37 inches of snow a season. a little more than the airport because my location is about 7 miles west and roughly 250ft higher in elevation. T.F green has recorded 15.5 inches so far this season while I have seen 18 inches. first week in January could threaten with more snow the way it looks right now


Si, I can live with the fact that the snow melts, If it can stay on the ground a few days that's fine with me. As long as it gets refreshed. It will be a white Xmas though. Yes I know the wind does blow over the ocean farther out than just off the sound. The idea is that in close snow/rain situations a colder L.I sound will mean more snow for the area. 45 degree "monsoon rain" this isn't the desert southwest. happy holidays

Man, am I glad this is rain! I really would not have wanted to spend Christmas clearing white crap!

Man what a rip-off!

The rain has just about melted all the snow in the New Haven area. I can't believe after 7 inches of snow it's all gone. In the eand it was another Green Christmas in south CT!

Blast!

Brian:

Its interesting to note you had snow on the ground on Christmas Day up near Providence, while here along the I-95 corridor in southern CT and most of the Tri-State area …it was pretty much another “Green Christmas”, which is fairly normal. About 85% of my lawn was showing on Christmas morning.

I think the last two days (and the coming week), …provide a great climate lesson in why snow, snow cover, and cold…is always short lived in warm temperate climates located along East Coast land masses (like East China, South Korea, Japan, the US East Coast, eastern Australia…ect). As I mentioned…there is always such a vast reservoir of warm subtropical air, moisture, and rainfall so close…that snow and cold are always doomed in the long-term. It’s amazing to think it snowed on December 19th …yet by this Sunday (December 28th) it will be entirely gone from CT south: the snow cover could not even last for 9 days!

In the coming days, temperatures in the 50’s and maybe even 60 F (remember the 60’s I predicted) and rain will spread across the Tri-State area. I think this clearly shows why snow and cold can never hang on for long from 40 latitude southward on mainland East Coasts…the subtropics are just too close. This weekend, while CT or NJ may hit 55 F or so… places as close as North Carolina will see temps of 75 F. I’ve always theorized that the proximity of the subtropical southeastern Atlantic States help create the mild winters along the East Coast from CT southward. It seems you have to get as far north as the Midwest/Great Lakes or New England (MA northward), before you lose the influence of the subtropics on the US mainland in winter.

As far as the next 8 weeks of winter…NOAA’s thinking is an even more mild turn across the south and southeast. This should allow even more warm advection and more frequent spells of a southerly flow (the dread of the winter lover on the East Coast) . Generally, in the Atlantic States this means more mild conditions and even fewer chances for snow.

I guess we’ll see. Happy Holidays.

SI VISITOR, I JUST WANT TO LET YOU KNOW THAT WE HAD A WHITE CHRISTMAS IN SHELTON CT. I ORIGINALLY HAD A MAXIMUM OF 11 INCHES ON THE GROUND AFTER THE SECOND SNOWFALL ,LAST SUNDAY. I JUST WENT OUTSIDE TO MEASURE THE SNOW DEPTH IN THE BACKYARD- TODAY DEC26. I CURENTLY HAVE 3.5 INCHES ON THE GROUND.YESTERDY DEC25 I HAD ABOUT 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND.I LIVE AT AN ELEVATION OF 500FT, 9 MILES INLAND FROM LONG ISLAND SOUND.I TOOK A RIDE THIS MORNING TO THE CT SHORELINE IN MILFORD CT. THERE WAS NO SNOW ON THE GROUND. I HAVE SEEN THIS VERY OFTEN, WHITE CHRISTMAS'S INLAND WITH ELEVATION AND GREEN CHRISTMAS'S ON THE SHORE.YOU COASTAL RESIDENTS DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE MISSING. IT WAS GREAT HAVING A WHITE CHRISTMAS I HAD A GREAT DINNER AND I WENT SLEDRIDING IN THE YARD WITH MY NIECES AND NEPHEWS.I WOULD NEVER WANT TO LIVE ON THE SHORELINE. BAH HUMBUG.

I hope you're right, Si! Send that warm air up here!!!! I'm lovin' it!

The snow lovers should move up to either Maine or Vermont if they love it so much. We have family & friends in those two states, and they were really clobbered this past week!

Si,

When is Noaa ever right, they change there forecast everyday it seems like. Midwest was supposed to be much warmer than normal, haven't seen that yet. If you think we are done with the good snows you might be jumping the gun. It's not even January yet.

MJ, I DO know what I'm missing. Lack of winter weather is why I live on the shoreline. No complaints from me, You can have it!

I'll take my 'Green Christmas' over having to deal with slop anytime!

MJ:

That’s amazing you had snow on Christmas morning in Shelton…enough for sledding. Although I’m sure the snow even in your neck of the woods is disappearing quickly, here in the New Haven/eastern shoreline there was little snow left by Christmas morning. Today it’s just about totally gone. I’m sure elevation plays a lot in hangs on the longest, much of the New Haven and coastal eastern Connecticut is quite flat, while up in Shelton you are as high as 500 feet. Still quite amazing to have snow.

Still, would think that with Sunday temps near 60…pretty much everywhere CT the snow will be gone. I have to say, I’m with shoreliner though, I choose to live in coastal CT just to get away from the snow up north. Sun and cold for the next eight weeks are fine by be as well.

Brian:

NOAA seems to have a moderately good track record in the short term (30 days or so), but they do seem to struggle in the seasonal forecasts at times.

As far as being “done with good snows”….as I mentioned before, the only real long-term prediction that seems to have any merit is long-term climate averages. This is the reason so many TV weathercasters have such trouble (especially in the Eastern US)… there is a real lack of understanding of geography, climate controls, and long term averages. Take snow: If you look at the averages…since most of southern Ct has had about 10 or so inches of snow so far this winter, January, February, and the first weeks of March will should have less.

A good example is our current surge of warm air over the Atlantic States. The weathercasters (especially the ones who love winter) seem to try to spin the warm-ups as if such a flow pattern along the East Coast is rare or odd synoptic anomaly (“we are in the warm sector of a low pressure area”). While this is true…. unfortunately, they lose site of the climatic “genetics” that allow the very frequent advections of warm subtropical air in the Atlantic States from CT south. The “hallmark” of humid warm temperate/subtropical climates is frequent surges of tropical air on the front of an advancing cyclone. The frequent surges of warm subtropical air in the Tri-State area is part of the winter climate here. This is why the winter climate of the East Coast is mild compared to the West, Midwest, and New England.

THis is why old men like me will always have an edge on supercomputers and colorful TV graphics when forecasting the weather...

Si

Just as you say cold and snow in CT is not sustainable neither is warm weather. Seems like these patterns last about 2 weeks or less and then they reverse themselves. (in most cases) I'm confident January and February will have more bouts of snow and cold. It would shock me if a snowy pattern such as the one that just transpired the other weekend did not repeat itself. You don'ty have to go that far off the immediate shoreline to almost double your snowfall in a season. You say most of coastal Ct has had 10 inches. I have had 18 inches so far this season in central R.I. that would average out to somewhere around 40 inches for a season. we'll see what January has in store for us

Brian

Brian visitor,i agree with your point. Snowfall occurs in 2 week cycles.Even in our snowiest winters, snowy periods occur along with mild snowless periods.I am excited what i see going forward, after Jan7 the nao is expected to tank negative.Expect cold and snow for an extended period. I remember the benchmark winter of 1978 did not really get started until mid Jan , the rest is history , very cold weather with the worst blizzard in southern new england since on Feb6-7. Your area was ground zero, just north of you in northern RI , 38 inches of snow was officially recorded.There were some unoficial reports of higher amounts.I remember the storm in my hometown of Shelton ct. I was in High School, i had no school for a week.Shelton recieved about 22 inches in that storm.I am excited about the prospects of this winter and future winters, i am aware of the cooling trend since Dec 2000. I recomend 2 websites, www.ice age now.com and icecap.These sites tell the truth about climate change.Dr mel goldstein is a member of ice cap and is a contributing editor.

MJ, we'll see how 'excited' you are over the slop when it sends you crashing into a utility pole. :)

Now, if you'll excuse me (as this is starting to get old), I'll leave you to your winter type dreaming....

Brian:

Obviously warm weather would not be sustainable all winter at this latitude…but I think you might have missed my point. Places in the northern interior of the USA (or places like Canada, Russia, Eastern Europe…ect), have far less frequent intrusions of warm air in winter than the Tri-State/East Coast region. The constant battle of warm and cold is why snowcover is so brief in the Atlantic states. Many places in the West, and northern interior states… have had snow on the ground “every day” since late November.

Also it is a bit untrue that locations “just off the immediate shoreline have almost double the snowfall”. While NWS Stratford averages 25.4 inches of snow …most of the southern half of CT only averages 30 to 35 inches of snow all winter. In fact much of interior southeastern CT gets only gets around 25 inches of snow a winter. Even Windsor Locks (NWS Bradley)…in far northern CT (8 miles from the MA line), only averages 44.8 inches of snow a winter according to NOAA….. still not even double at this far northern interior CT location. I don’t think snowfall up where you are in RI is representive of what we in southern CT/Long Island receive in terms of snowfall. I’m not on the “immediate shoreline”…and I have only measured 8.5 inches of snow all winter so far.

Just one other note… while the “Blizzard of 1978” was certainly a whopper of a storm… NOAA estimates the return period for such an event is around 30 years. You may be waiting a bit of a long time for such an event to happen again (lol).

Si,
Some actual ground truth!!

I'm located in the NW hills-Winsted,CT..about 900ft up give or take. About 50 miles north of bridgeport! I average approx. 70-75" of snow every season(30 west of Windsor locks). CT has a very dramatic micro-climate for it's size. It is a different feeling of winter in these parts. Just now beginning to see holes in my snowpack!!
Rob

Si,

Just to throw it out there..
19.75" measured in my backyard up here in the NW hills to date. Just about "double" to the shore.hmmm!
Rob-Winsted

Si,

If the return date of such a storm as the blizzard of 1978 is 30 years than that would mean it's been 30 years and we are due. Just took a peak at the long range GFS and it shows a potent low near the N.C coast with a strong 1020 mb high over northern Maine. This is around the January 13 time frame. Not to say it's going to bury us but climatologically that is when we get our biggest storms.

MJ your right the blizzard of 78 buried Woonsocket R.I with an unoffical total of 53 inches of snow while T.F Green recorded 38 inches. Wouldn't mind seeing that for myself

Brian:

You may be right...but somehow I doubt such a storm will happen THIS January (lol).

Who knows though?

Rob:

That's amazing. It is not suprising though, as you are almost 1000 feet up along the Mass state line. Much of the mildness of CT winters is just about gone when you get way up there.

Good luck with 70-inches of snow (lol) Down here in coastal CT... if we get 27-inches of snow I find it too much. How do you folks up there put up with that god only knows (lol).

Si,

You have had only 8.5 inches of snow this season, What happened? I had 8.5 inches of snow in about 6hrs during that big Friday snowstorm. with a total of 11 for that one. Total for the season stands at 18 inches. more chances at snow this week.

Blizzard of '78 was monsterous. especially eastern SNE. One to two feet were more common over here in the western areas of CT/SNE(still paralyzing)
Our last "monster" snowstorm for the whole "megalopolis" region was in Feb of '03(aka presidents day storm). I personally measured 22". 20-30"+ were common from DC-Boston!!We tend to forget the other monsters! Not to ever compare to '78 blizzard(especially pressure wise) though!!!
Rob

Some people like monster snowstorms,they pronounce it a tad bid different
~Peace Glenna~