Yeah, I hear ya! I cringe at the very thought of Winter being here again in a matter of months. Just as long as we don't have another Winter from hell like last year!

Perhaps we may see a few cooler nights once the front moves through later this week…but for lovers of truly cool weather – cool/cold temps seem far off at this point. The normal high in the Tri-State area cities (NYC, New Haven, Stamford, …etc) in September is normally well into the 70. The few cool nights, are normally FAR from frosty –lol. I think you might see a few nights of temps that get below 45 F late this weekend (and not in the lowlands of southern Connecticut), but I think beyond that it is wishful thinking if you’re expecting frost in the Tri-State area in September. After the brief cooler air passes this weekend, overnight lows will struggle to get below 50 F in most of the Tri-State area by the end of next week.

With SST (sea surface temps) quite warm along the East Coast, any low pressure areas that move toward the Great Lakes (climatologically where they move toward in mid fall) will keep pulling warm/mild Atlantic air over us for some time. I would guess October 2011 and maybe even November 2011 at most NWS stations will be “above normal” temp wise once again. I should think “snow blowing weather” is at least 3 months away (if you’re lucky).

They have an old saying on the East Coast of the USA from the beaches of Newport, Rhode Island to the Virginia Capes: September and October are just a drier version of July and August – lol.

Great explanation Mr. Kantrow! I have been following you for quite some time now! Can't wait to see you on the air!

-Evan Michaels

I agree with Evan, Sam... it's great to have you aboard, and your blog entries are fun to read!

Sam, I think SI has it right, we might see a few cool nights by late this week/weekend, but I think real "jacket" weather is a long way off. The NWS has highs next week into the 70's, and lows in the 55 f range. This sept has been warm and humid, so I think with the warm ocean temps, oct and nov will be mild.

I agree that real jacket weather isn't here just yet, but we'll certainly be needing them at night this weekend. I'm still thinking scattered frost possible and lows will dip into the 30s this weekend. MOS data is trending colder and colder and is forecasting temps in the 30s for lows in the hilly terrain and some of interior CT. Regardless, after the brief fall preview, we'll return back to normal...until then, I'll be bundling up!

One check of the NWS point forecast shows that even NOAA sees little chance of temps below 45 F for most of the Tri-State area. The two coolest nights should be Friday night and Saturday night, with forecast lows in the coastal cities (New Haven, Stamford, New London) still near 50 F (+/-), and areas in central/northern Connecticut in the mid 40’s. I think only the far Northwestern Hills above 2000 feet will see temps below 40 - 45 F. The cool shot will also be brief - by early next week (Monday), low temps will be back near 50 to 55 F and daytime into the 70’s .

In fact, the pattern looks to turn even warmer and more humid as the Bermuda High moves a bit closer to the East Coast late next week and a southerly flow sets up along the East Coast. We should see 80 F by late next week in at least a few areas the Tri-State area. I think in the coming week the tropics and what develops or heads toward the USA mainland will be where most of the real weather drama will be.

I'm back from a bit of a hiatus. Needless to say we had a wild August between tstorm damage and then all the flooding from Irene. It was historic flooding in VT, with many roads and property damaged. We're enjoying some quiet warm weather now but it looks like frost in NH/VT for Friday and Saturday nights. So far the trees are still mostly green compared to this time last year, maybe because this summer was much wetter than last. Over the coming weeks, though, with this cool period and others coming, the trees should really start turning color. The weather this weekend will be a nice fall preview, with sunny days and highs around 60 and nights well down into the 30s. Next week looks to slowly warm back up. The other good news is that with the current weather pattern in the western Atlantic tropical systems should stay away from the US.
I think overall it was a very nice summer, it was warm without being to hot, we had adequate rainfall and I didn't have to use the AC all the time unlike like last summer. But it also went really fast and I couldn't believe it when September started.

BoB:

While the Tri-State area should remain modestly warm...I think you might see some frost up in New England, but only on Friday and Sat night. I know your almost a month ahead of us in southern Connecticut/Long Island, so you might see more frost by the last week of Sept. Otherwise, the pattern seems to be pretty normal in the last week of Sept/first week of October, so little truly cool/cold weather will make it south of MA.

Also, I would not be so sure about the coming pattern keeping tropical storms away from the USA - lol. The pattern will turn southerly once again by late next week (you'll even feel it up where you are), and the current disturbed area of weather off Africa right now might (if it develops) move northward off the East Coast of the USA.

Check E. Abrams blog at AccuWeather, he is even thinking a hurricane could again get close to the US East Coast.

I hope not, we don't need another event like Irene. It still looks like frost tonight, we have a frost advisory. Mid September does feel early for frost even up here so a warm up would be nice so long as it doesn't bring any tropical systems.

Bob:

Yes, Irene was quite a struggle for folks in the Caribbean and the USA - the last thing we need is another tropical cyclone. From the Puerto Rico to upper Maine, Irene killed 55 people (8 are still known to be missing as of today), and did from $10 to $15 billion in damage from the Caribbean to Maine.

We also had some cool temps down here (NY/NJ/CT): The 5:00 AM NWS obs this morning had New Haven down to 49 F…Groton at 47 F…and Central Park at 51 F. I don’t know if these were the lowest temps at these stations, however. My low was 47.8, so it did get a bit cool last night. However, temps seemed to rise quickly in the dry air this morning - by noon my home temp was up to 55.3 F, and the 2:00 PM obs most area stations in the Tri-State are now in the 60 to 67 F range. After this weekend the pattern looks to once again warm. In fact, as the pattern turns more southerly by the middle of next week, lows will struggle to get below 60 F, with highs in the middle/upper 70's across the Tri-State area.

Meanwhile in the tropics, the areas of disturbed weather between the Bahamas and the African coast seem to be getting better organized. This could be a player on the East Coast 7 to 10 days from now as the flow pattern turns southerly by late next week/weekend.

I have the feeling that somewhere between the coconut palms in Miami… to the beach cottages on the Rhode Island coast…the East Coast may yet again be threatened from that evil wind born in the tropical seas.

Well as expected...temperatures did dip into the 30s in the early morning hours for a handful of spots in Northwestern & Northeastern CT all weekend (even this morning). A handful of 36's were the coldest temps I saw. Thankfully we didn't see frost due to a bit of cloud cover on Friday night (the coldest night). I'll explain why that helped in my next blog. Otherwise, one cool day left...then back to normal folks!

Thank god, Sam! It is too early to be that cold!

I'm very happy that WTNH has a weather forecaster who enjoys the nice, warm weather! The cold / snow bias was starting to get very old.

Shoreliner:

Glad to see your still out there!

The much hyped “cool snap” was certinaly both brief and modest; NWS Bridgeport fell to 49 F (the coldest of the last three nights), NYC fell to 51 F , and NWS Windsor Locks fell to 41 F (on the 17th). Most of the region struggled to fall below 45 F as I expected. Otherwise, the pattern will continue to warm. In fact, after tonight, lows will struggle to get below 60 F across much of the Tri-State area for the next 10 days at least. Daytime highs will be right back into the mid 70’s (80 F could be back by mid week), as a more humid pattern sets up. Sept 2011 is still running above normal at most NWS area stations across the Tri-State area.


For the cool weather fans…it looks like any truly cold weather will remain well north of us.

Si, I wonder what the cold weather crowd will do without their leader this Winter? LOL!!!!!!

Shoreliner:

It has been a long summer for winter/cool weather fans; Every single month from May through September (it looks like now)has been above normal. Worse (for cold weather fans), it seems the the hot season will just will not give an inch of ground on the East Coast.

Keep in mind that just to our south, much of the subtropical Gulf/South Atlantic states still have normal highs in the 80 - 85 range. Only once we get into November or so, will the hot season finally break in the American subtropics (cities like New Orleans, Mobile, Charleston, Myrtle Beach...etc, have highs that fall below 75 F by November). So with a source of warm mild air so close to us, warm temps can occur at anytime well into October. It will be at least another month before you'll need a jacket or the furnace will click on in the Tri-State area.

For the record...NWS Central Park has had one of it's top 5 hottest July's on reacord.

This was an extended weather report and not a blog topic. I guess the topic would be that fall is officially here, but we don't need the weekly forecast here.

Guest A...it's called a forecast BLOG, and regardless it explained about Canadian high pressure. If you don't like it, don't read it!!

Fall is here?

Yea right, in Minnesota or Maine!
Right the East Coast is humid, green, and WARM. It’s 70 F here in New Havv. It feels no different than mid June!

Let me know when REAL fall gets here!

Fall is a season and it started today, and meteorologists say it starts September 1st. It's about days getting shorter, and leaves changing. I see both of those happening, and these warm days are getting fewer and fewer. And in mid-June it gets dark at almost 9pm, as opposed to before 7pm now! Seems like fall to me...next to come are the colder temperatures.

I always thought the concept of seasons was flawed, in the lower middle latitudes. The old English country people originally brought the concept of fall with them when they arrived in the United States. The difference of course is that much of England lies north of the 50th parallel, while areas like CT or NJ lie close to 40 latitude (700 miles further south). So the solar angle changes MUCH more rapidly in the higher latitude (45 – 55 N/S) than in the lower latitudes (poleward of 45 N/S). Locally, is there really any different from a warm 75 F, humid day in mid May, July, or September?
I think most locations between 42 and 25 latitude have really only two seasons; A cool/cold season November through early April…and a warm/hot season from late April through October.

As far as leaves changing here in the Tr-State area, still soild green here in south Connecticut. All the rain, humidity, and +70 F temps, means than the leaves will not change much for awhile.

Don't come to New England looking for fall weather just yet either. What a difference from this time last week, when we were in the 30s at night and highs were around 60F in NH, and it was still actually summer. Now it's autumn and we have nighttime temps that are several degrees warmer than the highs last weekend (summer), and daytime highs pushing 80F.
Believe it or not it's even warmer out west, on the other side of that upper low, with very summerlike temps all the way to Montana. Last week my heat was on, now my AC is on to keep the warmth and moisture down. It looks like "island time" is back for the eastern US all the way to Canada and that doesn't look to change anytime soon. What does this mean for fall foliage? Some of the trees have started changing color in New England thanks to last week's chilly weather, but now with it being more like July for an extended period the process is slowing down. So we could be enjoying an extended period of color this year and more time for activities we normally associate with summer. It also gives the road crews in VT more time to repair the flood damage from Irene and open the roads in time for foliage traffic. So come on up to the mountains and enjoy some bonus summer weather with a little color thrown in.

Remember guys, it's still only September which is a funny month, with the 60 degree days, and 70 degree nights some times. That's why our weather in New England is so cool (no pun intended)! The normal high is only around 70 now funny enough. And I saw on the air a picture from Goshen, CT with some cool color on the leaves. I'm seeing color in the Hartford area where I live also! It's pumpkin pie and leaf bags in my near future :)

I think October is really the time to really start looking for fall weather in the Tri-State area. It's a bit early. Today was warm and humid with highs in the 75 - 79 F range. That's not fall weather. Once we get into mid October it will start to feel a little like fall. Still way too warm and humid!

I agree, this doesn't feel like fall at all. On the flip side, there's been a huge outbreak of waterspouts over Lake Michigan near Chicago today, where they've been under the influence of a very fall-like upper level low, with much cooler temps than we've had here in the East. Apparently the very cold air over the warmer waters of the lake has led to a lot of instability and the development of some pretty wild thunderstorms over the lake that then move onto land. They say it could happen again tomorrow, as that low is basically stuck over the Midwest, while we stay on its summerlike eastern side which is pulling up all the tropical air over us.

As far as “Island time” I agree, the middle/upper East Coast is enjoying some good old fashioned beach weather! I was at the Rocky Neck Beach on Saturday and there was many people in the water, so I tested it myself and the surf was still quite warm (about 70 F). I checked the NOAA SST map, and sure enough it shows local SST around 19- 20 C (68 -69 F) around Long Island Sound/Atlantic Ocean off Fire Island. The beach resorts to our south (the Outer Banks, Myrtle Beach, Folly Beach, Hilton Head…etc) should really have nice beach conditions in October and early November as SST are still near 80 F off the North and South Carolina coastline, and it will be awhile before SST fall to under 70 F:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.fc.gif

However, I do think that by the middle of this week (wed or so) we’ll see a more west-southwest flow (instead of the deep southerly tropical flow we have now) and temps will come down some and humidity/dew points will fall. The first two weeks of October should see ave temps and drier conditions for much of the eastern USA. So up where you are you might again see a frost. I think locally down here in the Tri-State area, high temps should be in the 60 to 70 F range, lows near 50 F, and sunny weather the last days of September.

Hurricane Irene, heavy rain, humidity, 100 F highs, one of the hottest summers of all time in NYC, Charleston, and Miami…etc….for the winter fan the summer of 2011 will long be remembered as the summer when that old East Coast monsoon ruled with an iron fist!

For weatherwatchers out there... it seems there are little signs of fall so far:

After a chilly morning today (no frost in the NW Hills, however)...another prolonged bout of deep high pressure, blazing sunshine, and temps in the 75 to 85 F range will rule the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic region. The warm days and heavy rain back in September seems to have really stoped the leaves from chnaging, at least here in southern CT. The leaves are still deep green as we head into the 2nd week of October.

Looking at the coming pattern in the next 15 days - I think by late October, as temps start to cool, we should finally see some color and perhaps even a frost as we get close to early November. Otherwise, that much hyped "jacket weather" seems a long way off for much of the Tri-State area. In fact, With temps well into the 70's and even 80's...it looks like it will be another "beach weekend " for many people!

We had frost in NH/VT the past couple nights, but now it looks like we too will be dialing back to summer for what is supposed to be the biggest fall foliage weekend of the year (Columbus). The foliage itself is very dull, with many leaves just turning brown and dropping, and still a fair amount of green. All the rain and erratic temperatures don't make for good color changes. Of course the tourism foliage reports say the colors are brilliant, but you should take those with a grain of salt. Regardless of color, it should be a beautiful Indian Summer weekend after all the rain and clouds. The humidity should stay low which means comfortable with cool nights.

Si...learn what the hell you're talking about. We've had frost the past 2 nights even close to the shoreline. Let the weathermen tell us what the weather is going to be!

SI:

Your pissing off the winter fans...there mad it's mid October and it will be in the 70's and 80's AND THERE HAS BEEN NO FROST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA (lol). I live inland and my low so far this fall has only been 39 F!!!

Poor winter fans....

I wonder who 'To Si' really is. My guess is either Brian or MJ. They've gotta be pretty ticked off over beach weather in October!

By the way, 'To Si' (cough, Brian, cough) there has been NO frost in this area at all. None, nadda, zero, zip, zilch! Put that in your pipe & smoke it, bitter Winter person.

Bob:

The foliage down here seems to have a whitish salt spray - no doubt from Hurricane Irene, but otherwise it is still soild green in most areas. I agree, all the rain warmth seems to have pushed most areas at least 2 weks behind (even longer in southern Connecticut and Long Island). With the warm temps coming in the next five days...the several days (late next week) with tropical moisture and high humidity...I think we will see no real color until late in October at least in the Tri-State area.

As far as temps...still no frost at any of the area NWS stations and I've not had a frost in my garden(though this is not unsual - my normal first frost is around October 25th). NWS Bridgeport lowest temp is 44 F....NWS Central Park is 46 F...and NWS Windsor Locks is 35 F. The next 15 days show little chance of cold temps/frost for much of the Tri-State area. NWS Bridgeport has not had a frost since March 28th...190 days ago. With the hot weather forecasted for the next 5 days...then a wet, but mild pattern after than...I think once again many areas in the Tri-State will once again see more than 200 frost free days.This is the time of year when the lower latitude of the Tri-State area protects from early cold they get up in the Midwest or northwestern USA.

For the winter fan in the lowlands of the Tri-State area....once again it seems that warmth, green, and blazing sunshine is crushing the hope of an early and cold fall.

SI/Shoreliner/JC
What an amazing weekend in New England. If you came up looking for brilliant foliage you were probably disappointed, but the weather more than made up for it. Honestly, after what felt like weeks of nothing but clouds and rain, who could complain about deep blue skies, temps pushing 80F, a gentle breeze and low humidity for three days and counting? Around here when you get a day in mid-October when you can go outside in short sleeves instead of a jacket you savor every minute of it. I had a chance to climb nearby Mt. Ascutney in VT and I don't think I've ever seen better visibility and warmth all the way to the 3100 foot summit.
It looks like we'll gradually be cooling off thru this week to near seasonal levels by next weekend. There could be rain on Thursday as the system now over Florida slowly works its way up. By next weekend it should clear up and while it will stay in the low 60s instead of 80s (it is Autumn after all) it should still be nice for the time of year.

Bob/Shoreliner:

We certainly have been on “island time” in the last few days; it hit over 80 F today at many NWS stations. We’ll see on Monday how hot it got at the different NWS sites. I took a small trip today to Rocky Neck State Beach, and there were many people enjoying the beach and surf. I went in the water and it stills feels quite warm – upper 60’s to 70 F I would guess. If this keeps up I may not have to take my annual trip to Myrtle Beach in November (lol).

I think we should watch the tropics, as I have a sense that things could get active for the East Coast late this week.

Hello, Si,

Looks to be warm again today! That's okay, I'm sure you know that I certainly am in no hurry to return to Winter.

Shoreliner:

Yes, the warmth continues. Not much sign of color here along the eastern Connecticut coast, the trees that are not green, seem to be brown from that salt spray of Hurricane Irene.

I'm thinking we'll see some more fall color the last week of so of October and maybe a frost as well.

Quite a nice burst of fall color here over the past few days which really surprised me. After the amazing warmth of last weekend it's gradually starting to feel more like fall. I imagine this weekend will probably be the last for peak fall color since it's supposed to be rainy tomorrow and then windy this weekend. Myrtle Beach might be a good place to go in the next few weeks.

Bob:

Glad to see your getting good color up north. Here in southern Connecticut, the leaves are still about 70/30 green, and the leaves that have changed seem very dry and muted. I know our color in the Tri-State is not quite as bold as New England, but this year because of Hurricane Irene the color is really poor. Most of the trees seem to have a white-brown color to them and look shocked in a way. Add in all the broken limbs from the hurricane, and it looks pretty sad.

As far as what lies ahead as we get into late October, I think temps will come down some and be closer to normal (as of right now most area NWS stations have a mean October temp of near 60 F). There could be a big storm late next week (October 20 -22) – and while we would see rain of course down here, you might see some flakes fly up in New England. The last week of October might actually send a frost all the way south to the coast of Connecticut and Long Island (including NYC). I think I'll pick my last garden veggies for the season later this week (lol), we'll see. NWS Bridgeport, Atlantic City, and NYC have now crossed over the 200 frost free- days.

Shoreliner/Bob:

Well it looks like the storm on the 20 -22 was a bust (lol).

As we head into the last week of October – monthly mean temps are running about 4 F ABOVE NORMAL at area NWS stations (Central Park, Bridgeport, Windsor Locks, and Newark). Monthly mean temps are near 60 F (or over ) at all the area NWS stations. Also, the persistent southerly flow this fall has kept Atlantic SST quite warm. As of today, SST are still near 17/18 C (64 F) off New Jersey. In fact, as close as Ocean City, MD, SST are near 19 C (67 F).
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.fc.gif

There are finally some signs of fall here along the Connecticut coast, as some trees are changing color, others are droping some leaves, while others are still rather green. So far there has been no frost at any area NWS station. In fact, as of today, NWS Bridgeport has had 205 frost –free days (no frost since March 28th, 2011). The last frost at my station along the eastern Connecticut was also on March 28th. 205 frost free days is not too shabby for us….as 210 -220 frost –free days is the normal for NWS stations like Richmond, VA or Sacramento, CA.
Meanwhile I think the next 5 days will see more calm weather, with daytime highs in the 60’s and blazing sunshine.

Yeah, that was some 'nor easter', wasn't it, Si? We get worse winds & rain out of Summer thunderstorms than we did that! LOL!!!!!!!!

Hopefully as we head towards the evil season known of as Winter, we continue to have busts as far as storms go. Speaking of Winter, I wonder what the cold weather crowd will do without their leader this Winter? LOL!!!!!

We've enjoyed a pretty mild fall up here too, in fact back on that really warm Columbus Day weekend Concord NH set a record high of 85F, ironically just a couple days after our first freeze. While it's now in the more seasonable 50s instead of 80s it's still pretty nice. It was cloudy today but Sunday should be sunny. A lot of the leaves are down now but there are still some areas of color. It does look to get colder later this week, with highs staying in the 40s. Even still, I'm sure this October will come out above average in New England too.
Amazing how south CT still hasn't had frost, even parts of the interior Deep South had frosts the other night. I have a friend who moved from CT to Richmond VA this summer and it's amazing how similar the weather he's getting there is to south CT.

Bob, that's why I can't help but to laugh at people who keep trying to say that Southern CT is in the same climate zone as New England, or even Northern Connecticut. Yes, we get storms, but like you do up North for the most part. It's just too close to the sound.

That s/b NOT like you do.....

For the record I had my first snowfall of the season last night, around an inch with a little more in the higher elevations. It was pretty minor. But now all of a sudden the storm that was supposed to go out to sea this weekend looks like it might get a lot closer, we actually have a winter storm watch for Saturday night. I was watching The Weather Channel and it's pretty funny how they're trying to pump up this storm for the Tri-state/mid Atlantic coastal cities when we all know how hard it is to get a big snowstorm there in January, never mind October. I read that even in New England a big snow in October is pretty rare, in fact according to the local WMUR-TV meteorologist Concord NH has never had a snowfall greater than three inches in October. It should be interesting to see how this turns out; the masters of hype are getting a really early start this year lol.

Come on, where are all you winter lovers now? How come you're not on here saying how beautiful the snow is? Oh, yeah, that's right! Chances are, you don't have electricity because of your precious snow & can't get online! Well, I hope you all enjoy being able to admire it while you sit in your house's freezing your butts off!

This storm sure was one for the books, with cities throughout the Northeast setting all time October snowfall records. And it obviously caused a huge amount of damage as the heavy wet snow pulled down still-leafy trees onto power lines. It was much more destructive than typical mid-winter snowstorms when the snow isn't so sticky and trees are leafless. There might be a few less winter fans after this one. I was pretty luck where I am, I was on the northern edge of the storm and had 9 inches with no tree damage, places just 30 miles south had over two feet and much more damage.

Yep, I would say that there are definitely less Winter fans now. The other end of the state looks like a war zone, and they are now saying that people could be without power for 10 - 14 days!

I saw some more news reports on the storm in CT, it looks like Irene all over again with the tree damage and power outages. My parents were pretty lucky, they live near Mystic which didn't get much snow, they had some strong winds but didn't lose power.

Bob/Shoreliner:

Yes, we had a dusting of snow this past weekend right down to the coast; NWS NYC reported 2.9 inhces...Bridgeport 1.9 inhces...Groton 0.3 inches...and my station had about 1 inch. Although it melted very quickly (it's 100% gone in most of southern CT now) the weight of the snow did some tree damage as well. Added with the tree damage from Hurricane Irene, and I don't remember the last time the wooded areas of CT looked so battered.

Otherwise, the pattern looks pretty stable in the next 10 days. This week will see susnhine aand highs in the upper 50's (low 60's in some spots) and overnight lows in the 30's. Next week, a slighlty more humid and warmer pattern takes over it looks like.