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Texas Heat & Drought: New England Can't Relate
(photo courtesy of Center for Land Use Interpretation)
My first job in the TV weather business was at KMID-TV in Midland/Odessa, TX. I lived there during one of the wettest years in West Texas recorded history, in which the airport recorded 22.46" of rain. For some perspective, this amount would be devastatingly low for Connecticut, and would rank as our driest year on record. So, what was a very wet year for West Texas would be unbelievably dry for us.
Now, I'm sure you've heard plenty of news stories about the drought conditions in the southern Plains states, and the triple-digit heat accompanying the drought. Well, in Midland, they're pretty accustomed to 100+ temperatures in the summer (today's average high, for instance, is 95 degrees). But this drought is so extreme that I think it is hard for New Englanders to comprehend!
Think about this: Midland's airport has not had measureable rain since March 5th. That's more than 5 months without even a rain shower. Five months! And so far this year, they've only had 0.16" of rain. Try pouring about a tenth of an inch of water into a glass, just to see what that looks like. Can you imagine what it would be like to have only that amount of water falling from the sky... in an 8-month period? I can't imagine it. Heck, when i lived there, it was green! (The photo, by the way, is an example of a "green" landscape in the Midland/Odessa area. Neat, huh?)
The reason I'm sharing this information with you right now is because the 7-day forecast in the Midland area has the best chance for rain that this region has seen in months. In a place where every drop counts, even a quarter-inch of rain (which is in the forecast through the end of the week) would be a huge help. I don't know about you, but I'm thinking about my friends down there and hoping for some relief from the oppressive drought for them!
9 comments
On the other hand, one must keep in mind that it’s all relative to the location. While folks on the East Coast…who are used to a wet/humid/high rainfall climate…would be shocked at the intensity of a west Texas drought…it’s equally true that folks in the drier western states… might be shocked when a single month brings 55 to 70 inches of rain (which happened here back in 1955 –when three tropical cyclones hit the lower East Coast, then spread rain across the East Coast). Folks in Texas would think it was the end of the world if that much rain fell (lol). So no doubt the is a huge difference between the drier western states and the much more humid/high rainfall East Coast.
The same could be said for the “green landscape”. People on the East Coast are used to lush forests and a thick green canopy of trees 7 months out of the year due to that very wet nature of the climate here and the long growing season. So an aird landscape, with stunted dead looking grass and plants (like the photo above) would be shocking to people in humid lowland climates. On the other hand, I can just imagine a west Texas hunter in humid/green/buggy swamp in coastal Connecticut, the lower Chesapeake or Delaware Bay…etc in the middle of July with a 97 F temp and a 77 F dew point… they would think they were in the Amazon –lol.
It’s all what your’re used to I guess…and on the East Coast we are used to “the wet” lol.
Although the concern level is rising…I would not push the panic button just yet along the East Coast of the USA. However,Irene has the CHANCE to hit anywhere between Hilton Head, SC and Cape Cod, MA right now.
The biggest question remains how the trough of low pressure… which will move across the Eastern USA on Wed/Thur… will affect Hurricane Irene (track and intensity). The timing and strength of this trough and the intensity of Irene by the time it reaches/interacts with the trough - will determine how quick Irene turns away from the USA eastern seaboard/coastal plain.
Having watched many of these paths over the years (despite what the models might show now), with each run the forecast track of Irene will continue to turn eastward and parallel the East Coast of Florida and Georgia, and South Carolina in the coming day or so. The area from Myrtle Beach to the Outer Banks is the most likely area to be brushed as Irene turns northward. As far as further up the coast from the Virginia Beach, VA to Long Island/Connecticut - if the trough passes by too quickly (and it looks like a fair bet at this point it just might do that)…then Irene would stay about 100 miles off the East Coast and cross the USA coastline around Long Island or Rhode Island. it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction (often more). The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida and Georgia. One thing that I think will happen no matter how close/off shore Irene gets to Long Island/CT - the humidty will start rising by this weekend and swells will start to hit the Rhode Island and Long Island beachs by late week. The surfers will be out in force at Ruggles (lol).
As far as intensity…since Irene is in a low shear/high moisture region, Irene will likely intensify into a major hurricane in the next day or so. Irene is still disorganized on its south side because of interaction with Hispaniola and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. SST are near 85 F along the track the cyclone will take, so it is likely that winds could reach 120-mph in the southeastern Bahamas in the coming days (lets hope not). Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane
Come this weekend...we should start to feel some effects from Irene in some way I think. At they say in the Florida Keys...now is the time to get the storm shutters out and count them...
For the time being we are enjoying a nice early taste of fall in New England after the wicked thunderstorms on Sunday that knocked down trees in my area. Unfortunately this nice weather may not hold through the weekend, depending on Irene's track.
Wait till late October comes, you will be so tired of the hurricane rains you,ll wish you were back in dry Texas. How did you like that tropical humidity when the eye crossed Long Island - lol
